Trade Update - GBP/USD Short

The Trade: GBP/USD Short


Reason/Setup:
This trade is based on the Elite setup on daily charts. I am little late in entering this trade, but since its based on the daily chart, I feel I have some leeway here. Also the trend is strong and the past history suggests that the pair has some more room to fall.

Trade Details:

• Date Entered: April 24 2008, 4pm
• Entry: 1.97253
• Lots: 10
• Stop Loss: no stop loss set
  
• Target: 1.95983

• Date Closed: April 30 2008, 8:00 am
  
• Result: Manually closed position.
• Total Pips: -434
• Profit/Loss: $454.35
• Rating: 2

Comments:
As it turns out, this is not the best trade to enter. As seen from the chart, the price has been moving basically sideways in a very tight channel, with the up and down days alternating. With that in mind, the better trade would have been to play the trend inside the channel and expect a bounce higher, or wait for a breakout from this channel. The only consolation was that the overall trend is definitely downward.

The other point to note is the pattern of the CCI. It basically just oscillates from positive to negative which indicates an unhealthy market. This is the kind of pattern a trader should stay away from unless you are playing the channel as it kill you.

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short

The Trade: EUR/USD Short


Reason/Setup:
This trade is based on the Elite setup on daily charts. I entered this trade before the actual signal was triggered as the trend was clearly visible and I had captured the trend in lower time frames. The 3 EMA is just about to cross the 34 SMA. And the Dollar has been in a major rally mode against all majors the past couple of days, so hopefully this trend will continue. Also the entry on this trade was perfect, so all it needs now is some good execution.

Trade Details:

• Date Entered: April 24 2008, 2:45 pm
• Entry: 1.56702
• Lots: 10
• Stop Loss: no stop loss set.
  
• Target: 1.5400

• Date Closed: May 02 2008, 5:30 am
  
• Result: Pair hit target.
• Total Pips: +2702
• Profit/Loss: $2702
• Rating: 5

Comments:
This proved to be a great trade to enter and one of those high probability trades. I had placed the target at one of the Fib levels and it worked out perfectly. It too a few days for the trade to play out, but in the end, I captured a near 270 pip run. While it does look like it ready to continue down further, I am just going to take my profits and close out the trade.

Trade Update - GBP/CHF Short

The Trade: GBP/CHF Short



Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the OzFX setup. And I got this setup on both the 1 hour chart and daily chart.

On the daily chart, the indicators signal a move down by the pair, but the price action is saying otherwise. As can be seen from the chart, I am seeing 3 up candles as of entry. Looking at the 1 hour chart, I noticed multiple down candles with good volume and the indicators signaling a move down. Once again, the price action of the current candles shows a move up.

I am going to trust in the indicator and hope that the price action is an aberration and will soon do in the direction signaled by the indicator. I am looking for a quick 30 pip profit and do not have a stop loss set for this trade as its a very volatile pair with big spread.

Trade Details:

• Date Entered: April 23 2008, 11:30pm
• Entry: 2.0124
• Lots: 10
• Stop Loss: no stop loss set.
  
• Target: 2.0094

• Date Closed: May 01 2008, 10 am
  
• Result: Manually closed the trade.
• Total Pips: -5938
• Profit/Loss: $5772.42
• Rating: 1

Update 04/24/2008 1pm:
This pair is killing me. Overnight this pair moved close to 200 pips against me, and in the day, it has moved another 100 pips. So i am now down close to 300 pips on this trade so far. :(


Comments:
This is by far my worst trade ever. There were mistakes everywhere, and I don't think I made a single good decision on this trade. So I decided to list all the mistakes I made on his trade so it will server as a good lessen in the future on what not to do.

First of, as can be seen from the chart, the entry was terrible. I am not sure what I was thinking, but the price action is what I need to be paying attention to. Not a laggy indicator. And the price action on both time frames indicated a move higher. Yet I went short the pair based on the indicators. MISTAKE ONE.

Next mistake, which was probably the biggest one was to not place a a stop on the trade. My thought on this was this being a volatile pair, I would get stopped out of my trade before it moves in my direction. So I decided to have a mental stop for this pair. But I entered this trade just before heading to bed, and I could not have been in front of the computer had the trade gone against me. And thats precisely what happened. Next day when I woke up, I was down 200 pips on this trade.

Mistake #3 was made when I didnt cut my losses short. When I woke up, I saw I was down 200 pips or USD 2000 on this trade. But now I was stuck in htis trade and was hoping for it to move back down so I can close it for atleast break even. Within the next hour, it proceeded to move up another 100 pips. I continued holding this pair hoping it will eventually move back down, but that never happened. This mistake cost me 300 pips.

Mistake #4 was made when the pair rallied by almost 500 pips against me and then pulled back by over 300 pips. At this point, had I closed the trade, I would have been down a little over 200 pips. But instead, I got greedy now, and though the pair would continue to move down and I could even break even with this pair. That never happened as the pair soon resumed its move up and went past its previous high.

The only good thing I did was to close this trade finally. By the time I closed this trade, I was down over USD 5775. My single biggest loss and the worst trade in my life.

Also while holding this trade, I also had couple of other trades without any stops and they were all down huge. At one point, I had managed to bring down the equity in my account from 15K to 4K. I will never ever do that. NEVER EVER!!!

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Short

The Trade: EUR/JPY Short


Reason/Setup:
Entered this trade based in the OzFX setup on daily chart. This was a perfect entry signal with the AO just turning red and the AC showing multiple red bars and the Stoch moving down. The pair has had a good run up so far and a pullback is imminent. I entered the trade as soon as the new candle appeared. I placed the target point based on Fib levels of the last run up.

The OzFX forum recommended not taking the daily signals today.

Trade Details:

• Date Entered: April 23 2008, 4:30 pm
• Entry: 164.228
• Lots: 10
• Stop Loss: no stop loss set.
  
• Target: 162.378

• Date Closed: April 29 2008, 12:10 am
  
• Result: Pair hit target.
• Total Pips: +1850
• Profit/Loss: $1775.70
• Rating: 5

Comments:
This was one of the best trades I have made. It certainly is my biggest winner so far. The entry was perfect and the trade was executed well. The price moved in my favor right from the beginning, and this was one of those low tension, low risk, high probability trades.

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short

The Trade: EUR/USD Short


Reason/Setup:
Entered based on Elite setup on 4 hour chart. I missed this trade in the 1 hour chart as I was sleeping. But the trend is clearly visible and I decided to enter a bit early on the 4 hour chart.

Trade Details:

• Date Entered: April 23 2008, 8:15 am
• Entry: 1.58744
• Lots: 10
• Stop Loss: no stop loss set.
  
• Target: 1.58144

• Date Closed: April 24 2008, 1:40 am
  
• Result: Pair hit target.
• Total Pips: +600
• Profit/Loss: $600
• Rating: 5

Comments:
Now I entered this trade before it was signaled by the system. But the trend was evident and hence I did not want to miss out on the few pips by waiting for the signal. Ideally, I should have entered this on the 1 hour chart and pyramided on the 4 hour and daily chart.

As we can see from the chart above, this was an excellent trade to enter and I would have done well if I had not closed this trade when I did. The pair continued to move sharply down after hitting my target, and had I held, I would have been sitting on more than 350 pips profit by now.

Trade Update - AUD/JPY Short

The Trade: AUD/JPY Short

Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the OzFX setup on 1 hour chart. The down trend was strong and I had multiple red candles showing the price action. Even the AC and AO had multiple red candles. This might indicate that the downward momentum has nearly been exhausted, but lets see how the trade goes.

Trade Details:

• Date Entered: April 23 2008, 7:00 am
• Entry: 97.69
• Lots: 10
• Stop Loss: no stop loss set.
  
• Target: 97.49

• Date Closed: April 23 2008, 7:40 am
  
• Result: Manually closed trade on trend reversal.
• Total Pips: -370
• Profit/Loss: $357.30
• Rating: 2

Comments:
Looking back this was a low probability trade to enter in the first place. The idea time to enter this trade was st the start of the 3rd down candle. I would have had couple of down candles with good volume, and a wide Stoch as well. And the AC would have just turned red meaning there is more room to go down.

Now that being said, we can see from the chart above that the air was trading in a range for a few hours before it continued its move down. So had I had the patience to hold on to it, I would have eventually hit my target. Nevertheless, its a bad trade to enter in the first place. Entered it just to keep busy.

Trade Update - AUD/USD Short

The Trade: AUD/USD Short


Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the OzFX setup on 1 hour chart. The general trend seem to be the strengthening of the Dollar, and this pair was acting accordingly. The trend is solid with multiple down bars with good volume. The Stoch is also wide and the AO is red.

Update 04/23/2008 4pm
Now the Elite setup on 1 hour chart has this pair generate a sell signal. Hopefully this should be enough to get the pair to move lower.

Trade Details:

• Date Entered: April 23 2008, 7:00 am
• Entry: 0.94611
• Lots: 10
• Stop Loss: no stop loss set.
  
• Target: 0.94411

• Date Closed: April 23 2008, 11:40 pm
  
• Result: Pair hit target.
• Total Pips: +200
• Profit/Loss: $200
• Rating: 4

Comments:
This trade took a long tome for it to play out. First off, since I had had multiple red candles at the time of entry, the downward momentum had almost worn off. So as soon as I entered, the pair started moving higher. Luckily the trend in the higher time frame was a move lower. So I just sat put, and the pair move down and hit my target eventually.

As can be seen from the chart above, the pair was in a strong down trend and continued moving lower after it hit my target point.