Trade Update - EUR/GBP Short CLOSED

Update 03-25-08 1pm:
As its happened before, I managed to close this pair at the absolute top for a loss. Had I stuck on, I would be close to break even now. The signal is still valid for this pair.

I need to learn to STICK TO THE SIGNAL.

Update 03-25-08 7am:
Yes another loser. And this is getting worse. It looked like the signal for this pair has turned. So I closed out this pair.

Total Pips: -120 (30 * 3)
Total Loss: $173.10

The Trade:
Contrary to my previous trade of this pair, I am going short this pair.

System:
This is based on the OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
On the technical side, the indicators lined up correctly. Price is thinking of moving down, while the AC and the AO are showing red. RSI, Stoch and %R are moving down.

Also considering my previous trade of this pair was to go long, and I was stopped out since the price moved down, I think its worth a chance to try the short side.


Rating:
I would give this trade a 2.5 star due to the following reasons:

• This pair has already had a significant move to the downside, and further downside move might be limited.
  
• The price is above the 200 SMA, so its against the long term trend.
• The markets are closed tomorrow, and hence low volume might result in greater volatility.
• I just got stopped out of this pair. It might be prudent to wait longer before entering again.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 0.77746
Stop Loss: 0.79046
TP: 0.76746

Trade Update - EUR/AUD Long CLOSED

Update 03-23-08 10:30pm:
I excited this trade today for a loss. Mainly because I got the opposite signal from the OzFX system.

Total Pips: -249 (83 * 3)
Total Loss: $223.96

The Trade:
Once again I am entering the EUR/AUD pair. This time I am not going to use any stops, and going to let this pair run.

System:
Based on the HAS system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
I barely got stopped out on my previous trade, and now the stock has recovered and even moved past my previous entry point. So this time I decided to not have any stop instead, and let the stock run its course for a week or so and see what happens.

On the technical side, we still have the blue candles across multiple time frames to confirm the trend. I may be late to the party, but this bull run has been going on for some time, and I dont see why it shouldn't continue.


Rating:
I will rate this trade a 2.5 star. I entered this trade pretty late, so it might not have the upside momentum. But I am hoping for a slow and steady rise up.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 1.7159

I don't have any stops or target points set for this trade yet. I will look to exit when signals change.

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 04-01-08 7pm:
New month, so I finally decided to close this trade. My worst trade ever. But there is no one to blame. I entered at the worst possible point, at the very bottom. Then I placed no stop loss thinking the long term trend was down. And then I did not exit the trade when the signals turned hoping it would turn back. And to my luck, even when the signals indicated a move down, the Euro showed surprising strength and continued its move higher.

Total Pips: -1240 (620 * 2)
Total Profit: $1219.87

The loss does not include the rollover charge. If I add that, it would be another 50 bucks more. This single trade has ruined my progress in Forex so far.

Update 03-24-08 10am:
Considering that I am down a lot in this trade (about -325 pips per lot), I decided to hedge my position. This is also based on the OzFX system which signaled a buy. I have attached a chart.


Here are the trade parameters.
Lots:3
Entry (Long): 155.494
Stop Loss: 154.494

The Trade:
Going short the EUR/JPY pair.

System:
HAS system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
Couple of them. First the Euro is weak today and Yen is gaining strength. So this would be the best pair to play that. Next, the indicators are all confirming the trend. More than 2 red candles and 2 or more red bars below 0 for AO.


Rating:
I would have rated this trade a 4.5 if I got in earlier. But I was asleep at that time. So now that I have missed a 250 pips move, I will rate this a 3 star instead.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 2
Entry (Short): 152.15
Stop Loss: 153.45
TP1: 151.65
TP2: 151.15

Trade Update - USD/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 03-20-08:
I should have just stuck to the charts and the system and not closed this trade yet. As of now, the pair is trading at 99.526, which wold have translated to a profit of +31 pips per lot instead of the loss I took. Lesson learnt.

Update 03-20-08 9am:
I exited this trade before it hit the stop loss. I realized that the Yen was gaining strength against all majors, and my other trades were with that trend. And this one was against that trend.

Total Pips: -139
Total Profit: $141.26

The Trade:
The Dollar is showing some strength. So going long the USD/JPY pair.

System:
This trade is based on the modified OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
The technicals point towards a brief rally. Both AC and AO show red bars. However both of them are below 0. Stoch, RSI and %R indicators trending up. The Dollar has been in a rally mode against all currencies the past few days. And there is also news that big buy orders are coming into this pair.


Rating:
I will rate this trade a 3 star due to the following.

• The price is below the 200 SMA and hence we are going against the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 99.219
Stop Loss: 98.219
TP1: 99.719
TP2: 100.219

Trade Update - EUR/CHF Short CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 7am:
The Euro was weak against almost all pairs except the Swissy. Wonder why. Anyway, after I got closed out of the GBP/CHF pair, I decided to cut my loss short on this one. I might have been wrong in doing that, but we will see.

Total Pips: -120
Total Profit: $118.25

The Trade:
Continuing with the numerous Euro pair trades I already have, I am entering short the EUR/CHF pair.

System:
Based on the HAS system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
Purely technical. According to the HAS system, this trade is signaled. Price moving down. @ red candles across multiple time frames. AO sowing red bars below 0.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 3.5 star. Mainly because the lower time frame might have a short term upswing.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 2
Entry (Short): 1.5580
Stop Loss: 1.5680
TP: 1.5530

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 11am:
My final lot closed today after hitting the stop loss. I had been up almost +250 pips in my position before it closed at +150 pips.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: +150 pips

Total Pips: +300
Total Profit: $300

Update 03-20-08 10am:
The Dollar has been on the rise all week, and this proved to be a great trade so far. The first 2 lots closed at +50 and +100 pips respectively. The third lot is trading at +160 pips. I have moved the stop loss to +100 pips.

The Trade:
Going short the EUR/USD pair.

System:
OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
This pair has been going up for a very long time, and all indicators are in oversold position. This might be the time when we see some pullback. From the daily chart, we see the AC showing red bar ad crossing 0. The AO is also showing red. And the Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are trending down. I have given this pair a sufficiently large stop loss.


Rating:
I will rate this trade a 3 star. The price is way above the 200 SMA. But this paid has to have a pullback sometime, and this is a good time.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.5596
Stop Loss: 1.5721
TP1: 1.5546
TP2: 1.5496

Trade Update - CAD/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 11am:
Sudden reversal in all rally's saw the stop getting hit for this pair. Unfortunate as I feel it still has some way to go.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2 &3: +100 pips

Total Pips: +250
Total Profit: $251.91

Update 03-20-08 10am:
One of the trends today has been the Yen rally against most majors. I closed the first 2 lots for +50 pips and +100 pips respectively. The 3rd lot is currently trading at +160 pips. Stop loss has been moved to +100 pips.

The Trade:
Continuing with the rally of Yen crosses, I am shorting CAD/JPY pair.

System:
modified HAS on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
Price dipping down. 2 red candles across multiple TFs confirming trend. 2 red bars on AO below zero.

Also the Yen is rallying back to 2 day old levels.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 4 star. All indicators point towards bagging some pips.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 97.685
Stop Loss: 98.885 (larged due to ATR)
TP1: 97.185
TP2: 96.685

Trade Update - AUD/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 12pm:
The past hour or so has seen the weakening of the Yen. This resulted in my 3rd lot hitting its stop loss. Too bad since it could have gone on further, but nevertheless a good trade.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2 & 3: +100 pips

Total Pips: +250
Total Profit: $251.89

This is another of those positions I feel will continue to trend lower in the coming days. But I do not want to rick the profit I currently have and will look to enter this pair later.

Update 03-20-08 10am:
After a weak start due to no Japanese trading session, this pair followed the yen rally. I closed the first 2 lots for +50 pips and +100 pips respectively. The 3rd lot is currently trading at +145 pips. Stop loss has been moved to +100 pips.

The Trade:
All the Yen crosses are retracing back to their original levels. So we are going short the AUD/JPY pair.

System:
Based on the HAS system on 4 hour chart.

Reason:
The Yen crosses are retracing to levels they were couple of days back. Price is moving down, and we have 2 red candles for confirmation along with the 2 red bars of the AO below 0.


Rating:
I would give this trade a 3 star rating because the current price is hooking up slightly. This would cause near term pull back and risk hitting my stop loss.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 90.34
Stop Loss: 91.34
TP1: 89.94
TP2: 89.34

Trade Update - EUR/AUD Long CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 10am:
Its a pity that we got stopped out of this trade. I had set the stop at the ATR limit, and i just barely managed to hit it, and now, the pair has moved higher, above my entry point. So I need to figure out how to better place stop loss points.

Update 03-20-08 7am:
Even though the signals were proper, this pair struggled right from the beginning. It might be related to the general weakness of the Euro we have been seeing all day. In the end, all 3 lots hit their stop loss and closed.

Total Pips: -390
Total Profit: $356.23

The Trade:
Continuing with the other Euro trades I have entered, I am going long the EUR/AUD pair.

System:
This trade is based on the HAS system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
The reason is similar to the EUR/CAD trade. This pair has been in a steady uptrend for weeks. And after a brief pullback, its trading higher again. As per the modified HAS system I am following, I see the price trending up as well as 2 blue candles confirming the trend. The AO also shows 2 green bars above 0 for further confirmation.


Rating:
As with previous trades, I rate this a 4.5. All indicators confirm the trend across multiple time frame. Entering the trade as soon as the 2nd candle showed up.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 1.7146
Stop Loss: 1.7016 (130 pip SL because of bigger ATR)
TP1: 1.7196
TP2: 1.7246

Trade Update - GBP/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-19-08 9pm:
The final lot hit the stop loss. I could have closed the final lot at over 100 pips, but I decided to hold on for larger gains. And that never happened. But that happens. No point in playing safe. You have to swing for the fences sometimes. Over all a good trade.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: 0 pips

Total Pips: +150
Total Profit: $151.41

Update 03-19-08 4pm:
This call has been on the money so far. We have closed the first 2 lots for +50 pips and +100 pips respectively. The their lot is still open and the trend is still valid. So i am holding on to it. Stop loss has now been moved to break even.

The Trade:
Going short the GBP/JPY pair.

System:
The trade is based on the HAS system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
Inflationary & recession pressures. After some upside General weakness of the Cable across the board after the release of the MPC meeting minutes.consolidation, price beginning to move down again. We have 2 red candles on multiple TF's confirming trend.


Rating:
I give this trade a 4 star rating mainly because it confirms to the long term trend. Only the M5 time frame is showing some short term upside consolidation.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 196.77
Stop Loss: 197.77
TP1: 196.27
TP2: 195.77

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Long CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 7:30am:
The 3rd lot finally hit the stop loss. Earlier the 2nd lot hit its TP of +100 pips and SL was moved to BE.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: 0 pips

Total Pips: +150
Total Profit: $146.62

Update 03-19-08 4pm:
Our first lot has hit its profit target of +50 pips. Holding on the remaining 2 lots as the trend is still valid.

The Trade:
Continuing with the Euro's strength, I am going long this pair.

System:
This is based on the modified HAS system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
The Euro has been showing strength against other currencies. Its already made an appreciable move against the Loonie, but there might still be some way to go. I see 2 blue candles giving confirmation to the trend on multiple time frames. I also have the AO indicator show a green bar above zero indicating an upswing.

I had gone short this pair yesterday and made loss in that position, but that was based on the short 1 hour chart. This is a longer trend and follows the daily and weekly trends.


Rating:
I will give this a 4.5 star due to the following reasons.

• The Euro has been on a steady uptrend against the Loonie for the last several weeks.
• After a brief pull back, its back rallying.
• All TF's seem to confirm the trend from M5 to MN.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 1.5781
Stop Loss: 1.5681
TP1: 1.5831
TP2: 1.5881

Trade Update - GBP/CHF Short CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 7am:
This was one of those weird trades. after the first lot hit its target point, the price started moving side ways. Until the Sterling gained strength and the remaining 2 lots hit its stop loss.

Lot 1: +54 pips
Lot 2 & 3: -226 pips (113 * 2)

Total Pips: -172
Total Profit: $170.88

Update 03-19-08 4pm:
The first lot has hit its profit target of +50 pips. Trend still valid and am holding on to remaining 2 lots.

The Trade:
I am going short the GBP/CHF pair. Cable showing weakness across the board.

System:
Based on the HAS system on 4 hour chart.

Reason:
Cable showing weakness across the board. Price moving down, and we got the 2nd red candle across multiple TF's confirming trend.


Rating:
4 star. All time frames pointing to down trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.98342
Stop Loss: 1.99390 (wider stop loss due to ATR)
TP1: 1.97842
TP2: 1.97342

Trade Update - EUR/GBP Long CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 7am:
So this trade is so far my biggest loss for the month. The charts were perfectly okay, but overall weakness of the Euro did us in. In the charts, before the Euro nosedived, the AO turned red. Kind of like an early warning indicator where I could have cut my losses short, but I didn't.

Total Pips: -300
Total Profit: $594.06

This also means I should trade fewer lots of this pair as each pip is worth almost $2.

The Trade:
Long on the EUR/GBP pair.

System:
Based on the HAS system on the 4 hour chart.

Reason:
Price moving up. We just have the 2nd confirmation blue candle confirming our trend across multiple time frames.


Rating:
I would rate this trade 4.5 star. All indicators are aligned properly and showing the trend, from M5 all the way to MN. Only concern is the small upward consolidation in M5 time frame.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 0.7893
Stop Loss: 0.7793
TP1: 0.7943
TP2: 0.7993

Trade Update - EUD/CAD Short CLOSED

Update 03-18-08 5:15pm:
I messed up the stop loss for this trade. I had initially set it to 50, but considering the 10 pip spread, i wanted to change it to 60. But I instead ended up changing it to 40 pips, and that was hit.

Total Pips: -120
Total Profit: $121.20

The Trade:
Going short the EUR/CAD pair. The Euro has fallen down against most currencies after the Fed rate cut.

System:
This is based on the HAS system on 1 hour charts.

Reason:
Based on the HAS system, the H1 and H4 time frames show 2 red candles. This confirms the downward trend. Since this is based on the 1 hour chart, we are looking to take quick profits. Stop is 50 pips away, and target points are set at 50 and 75 pips respectively.


Rating:
I will rate this trade a 3.5 due to the following reasons.

• Trade is short term and against the main long term trend.
• We were able to get into the trade just when the H4 time frame showed 2 candled. This should hopefully be a good entry point.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.5486
Stop Loss: 1.5536
TP1: 1.5436
TP2: 1.5411

Trade Update - USD/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 03-18-08 5pm:
The remaining lots hit the stop loss and we closed our position. I do however feel that the price will continue up at least until tomorrow, so I will keep an eye on this pair.

Lot 1 (closed at 3:20pm): +67 pips
Lot 2 & 3: 0 pips (hit SL)

Total Pips: +67
Total Profit: $66.47

Update 03-18-08 3:20pm:
Our first target has hit its target point, and we have locked in +67 pips profit. SL is now moved to BE.

The Trade:
Once again we are riding the dollar rally here. Going long the USD/JPY pair for a quick profit taking.

System:
Based on the HAS system on 1 hour chart.

Reason:
Dollar rally due to less than expected fed rate cut. Chart shows 2 or more blue candles upto the 4 hour time frame on the 1 hour chart.

Once again this is a short term trend play. Need to take profits soon and exit.


Rating:
I rate this trade 3.5 since its a short term play and I am just piggybacking the momentum. The trade is against the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 99.686
Stop Loss: 98.936
TP1: 100.186
TP2: 100.436

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short CLOSED

Update 03-18-08 10pm:
This trade went exactly as planned when I entered it. Within minutes of entering, I was up +50 pips. But instead of locking in the profits and closing the trade, i held on to my position and let the trend reverse. This is especially the wrong thing to do when the trade is entered based on lower time frames. I just need to take my profits and move on.

Lesson:
Small time frames = Small profit + small stop loss.

Total Pips: -150
Total Profit: $150

The Trade:
Finally, after weeks, we have a chance to short the Euro. The Fed rate cut helped spark a broad Dollar rally, and I am just riding the momentum train here.

System:
This is based off the HAS system on 30 minute chart.

Reason:
As mentioned above, the Fed cut interest rates by 75 basis points. This was lower than what the market has expect (100 bps), and hence sparked a broad dollar rally against all currencies. The short time frame charts are also agreeing with the rally, so I decided to go with the trend.

This is a purely momentum based rally with a small stop. So i need to exit this trade quickly as soon as I realize some profits.


Rating:
I would rate this a 3.5 star. The current trend is againt the long term trend, and I need to exit this position as early as I can.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.56664
Stop Loss: 1.57140
TP1: 1.56144
TP2: 1.55914

Trade Update - AUD/CAD Long CLOSED

Update 03-19-08 10am:
Another of my trades which hit the stop loss after hitting the first TP. This has been happening all week, and I am not able to catch any breakouts for significant profit. At least I made some profit on the trade.

Lot 1 (closed at 12:30am): +50 pips
Lot 2 & 3: 0 pips

Total Pips: +50
Total Profit: $50.31

In times like these, I wonder if I should just close all my lots when I hit the first target point. Especially considering this trade had limited upside potential.

The Trade:
The trade is go to long on the AUD/CAD pair. As with my previous trade today, the A-PAC currencies are showing strength today.

System:
This is based on the HAS system on the 4 hour charts. I did however enter this trade with a buy-limit order to get a better entry price.

Reason:
As seen from the charts, the Aussie Dollar has been gaining grounds against other majors today. We have the required 3 blue candles which confirms the trend. The daily candle is borderline blue, but that's because we placed a buy limit order when the price was moving down.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 3 due to the following.

• We have already seen a big price appreciation from the lows.
• We bought this on the short term consolidation phase. Hence the daily time frame is just borderline blue. We might be entering this trade prematurely. Maybe we should have waited for the downtrend to reverse before taking our position.
  
• The upside to this trade is not much. Maybe 100-120 pips. So the risk-reward ratio is probably not ideal.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 0.9228
Stop Loss: 0.9128
TP1: 0.9278
TP2: 0.9328

Trade Update - NZD/USD Long CLOSED

Update 03-19-08 7am:
As mentioned before, this pair had significant upside resistance and hence limited upside potential. The remaining 2 lots hot their stop losses.

Lot 1 (closed at 9pm): +50 pips
Lot 2 & 3: 0 pips

Total Pips: +50
Total Profits: $50

Update 03-18-08 9pm:
My first target point has been hit and the first lot is closed for a +50 pip profit. Stop loss bas been moved to break even.

The Trade:
The A-Pac currencies are showing some strength today and reversing their losses of the past few days. I am entering long the NZD/USD pair.

System:
This trade is entered based on the HAS system on 4 hour time frame.

Reason:
After couple of losing days, the NZD has started moving back to the upside. And by the HAS system, we have 2 candles confirming the trend. On the fundamental side, we have the PPI and the interest rate statement being released today for US. And its almost a surety that there will be a 75-100 bps cut which will further devalue the USD.


Rating:
I would give this trade a 4.5 star due to the combination of technical and fundamental factors. The charts clearly confirms the trend. There might be short term consolidation, but the move is definitely to the upside. And the release of data points in US later in the day might help our trade.

Trade Update - USD/CAD Short CLOSED

Update 03-18-08 7am:
Another successful trade. The price moved just enough to hit my profit target. But I had modified the trade yesterday to buy a third lot if the price hits the initial 50 pips target. And I had a 50 pip stop loss on that trade which was hit. So the net was just a +50 pip gain here.

Lot 3 purchased at 0.9901. There was a 3 pip slippage in my buy order.

Lot 1 &2 (closed at 4am): +100 pips (50 * 2)
Lot 3 (closed at 4:35am): -50 pips

Total Pips: +50
Total Profit: $47.69

The Trade:
This trade was actually recommended on babypips.com site. As a short term play, we are shorting the USD/CAD pair.

System:
This trade is mainly based on the Babypips.com recommendation. However this also falls into my system as some of the indicators are trending down.

Reason:
After a brief rally, the USD seem to be losing steam. The Stoch, RSI and %R indicator seem to hint at that fact as they have all started moving down. Also we have 2 important economic data being released tomorrow. The Canadian core CPI as well as the US PPI and interest rate statements. Considering the economic events happening the past few days, and the fact that the Fed cutting interest rate is almost guaranteed, we can expect the Dollar to move lower.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 2 mainly because its based on fundamental factors. While the trend is looking to move downwards, we dont have the signal from the AO or AC. Even the HAS system has not signalled this trade.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 2
Entry (Short): 0.9954
Stop Loss: 1.0004
TP: 0.9904

Missed Opportunity - EUR/AUD Long

This was one trade I was looking at today, and I had an opportunity to buy. All time frames showed blue, and the price was in a pull back mode. So it was a good time to buy as soon as the trend reversed. But I never did, and I just missed out on a easy 300 pip move. :(

Oh well. Live & learn.

Update 03-16-08 9:30pm:
Extreme volatility in the markets have caused the Euro to move up by almost +500 pips against the Aussie dollar. In fact, the Aussie & Yen have been extremely weak against other currencies due to the new from US financial markets over the weekend.

Trade Update - GBP/AUD Short CLOSED

Update 03-19-08 7am:
This trade is a prime example of what NOT to do in trading. I committed every possible mistake and broke every single rule. But somehow, I still managed to break even and not lose any money.

Total Pips: 0
Total Profit: $0

What went wrong:

• Entered trade just for the sake of trading. I did not have the patience to wait for the ideal trade. Instead, I just wanted to enter any trade available.
  
• Entered trade too early. I did not follow the HAS system rules, and entered the trade as soon as I saw a single red candle across multiple time frames. I did not wait for the 2nd confirmation candle. Part of the reason is tied to the above one.
• No stop losses. I ignored the fundamental money management principle, and did not add any stop loss for the pair. My idea was to stop the order when the signal changes. But within minutes of entering the trade, I was down almost -400 pips per lot or about $1200 for this trade.
• The next money management principle I ignored was not closing the trade when the signal changed. When the signal did change, I was down more than $1200, and I didn't want to close the trade and take the loss. So I just continued holding the position hoping it would break even.
• Finally, I let emotions take over, during entering and especially when exiting the trade. If I had followed my rules, I would have exited this trade for a -300 pips loss, instead I let it ride and was lucky to break even.
  

The one thing I did do right was place the trade in the direction of the long term trend. The weekly and monthly charts still had a downward trend and this helped me break even in the long run.

Update 03-17-08 6pm:
After a brief pullback, this pair is starting to rise again making my life miserable. I am still continuing to hold this. Tomorrow 2 important economic data for UK is being released. Hopefully that will help me break even with this trade. I am still trailing by -341 per lot in this trade.

Update 03-16-08 8:40pm:
This week has started as a disaster. Due to the worsening of the US credit markets, the Asian markets have opened sharply lower. Bear Sterns agreed to a $2 per share purchase by JP Morgan Chase in an emergency bailout. The Fed also cut some interest rate. All these resulted in the Aussie & Yen moving lower sharply against other currencies.

Since I opened this trade without a stop loss, I am down about -365 pips per lot, or a total of -1095 pips for this trade. I have not yet closed this position, but this is definitely a disaster which is going to set me back a lot. Lessons learnt?

• Reinforces why I need to stick to the rules and not break them. Wait for the 2nd HAS candle to confirm the trend.
• Always have a stop loss. I would have exited this trade long back instead of having to hold on to with a 400 pips loss currently.
  

The Trade:
As with other pairs, the Sterling is showing weakness against the Aussie Dollar. So I am shorting this pair.

System:
This trade is based on the HAS system on the 4 hour charts.

Reason:
After a brief rally for about 2 weeks, the Sterling has been steadily moving down the past few days. Finally today I got the signal from the HAS system to enter this trade short. The daily time frame switched from blue to red and the rest of the time frames already showed red. I entered this trade even though there is only one red bar instead of the 2 I look for mainly because the lower time frames are showing a downward trend. So I feel this trade will make us some profits.


Trade Rating:
I give this trade a 4 star due to the following reason.

• There is only one red bar across all time frames (H4 and above) when I entered the trade.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 2.1418

I have not yet set a stop loss or target point for this trade. I will be doing this depending on how the trade progresses.

Trade Update - GBP/USD Short CLOSED

Update 03-17-08 8pm:
I closed the final lot as I was noticing a reversal of the signals. Even though it was way off the peak, I did make a good profit in this trade.

Lot 1 (closed at 3:41am): +50 pips
Lot 2 (closed at 4:09am): +100 pips
Lot 3 (closed at 7:45pm): +107 pips

Total Pips: +257
Total Profit: $257

Update 03-17-08 5pm:
This trade is still going strong for me. The final lot is now trading at +170 pip profit. I have moved the stop loss to +100 pip so I definitely make some profit.

Update 03-17-08 7am:
This trade was literally on life support. Within minutes of me entering this trade, it was down almost -95 pips and very close to being stopped out. Luckily it wasn't, and during night, it managed to do quiet well. We closed to first 2 lots for +50 pips and +100 pips respectively. The third lot is now trading at +85 pips profit. Stop loss has been moved to break even.

The Trade:
To start of the week, I am going short the Sterling.

The System:
This trade is based on the OzFX system on the daily chart.

Reason:
After a long rally up, the Cable has been showing weakness against the dollar the past 2 sessions. And I just noticed the signal in the OzFX system. The Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are all moving down from oversold territory. This usually signifies a strong move down. The price however is above the 200 SMA, but just barely.


Trade Rating:
I would rate this trade as a 2.5 because of the following reasons.

• Price is above the 200 SMA.
• AO shows 2 red bars, which means I entered this trade late.
• I entered the trade at the lowest point instead of waiting for a pullback for a better entry point.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (short): 2.0135
Stop Loss: 2.0235
TP1: 2.0085
TP2: 2.0035