Trade Update - EUR/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-30-08 4:45pm:
Closed this trade and took my quick profits.

Total Pips: +112
Total Profit: $113/13

The Trade:
Going short the EUR/JPY pair.

System:
Based on the Elite system on 1 hour charts.

Reason:
Again purely technical. Just test driving the new system. Cross down of the 3EMA-34SMA line. And CCI moving below zero.


Rating:
I entered this trade a little late and missed few pips. So this would have to rated a 3.5 star.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 156.82
Stop Loss: 157.82

Trade Update - USD/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-30-08 4:45pm:
Took my profits and closed the trade.

Total Pips: +116
Total Profits: $117.06

The Trade:
Short the USD/JPY Pair.

System:
Based on the Elite system on 1 hour charts.

Reason:
Purely technical. 3EMA crossing below 34 SMA. CCI crossed below 0 and shows healthy signal.


Rating:
I managed to get into this trade relatively early. Would rate this a 5 star.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 99.565
Stop Loss: 100.565

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Short CLOSED

Update 03-28-08 10am:
I ended up closing this position as the signal had turned. The loss could have been smaller had I entered the trade earlier. The good thing about this trade is that when the signal reverses, the loss is minimal as we are using the 3EMA which very closely follows the price action. But the important part is to enter as soon as its signaled.

Total Pips: -138 (46 * 3)
Total Profit: $135.39

The Trade:
Going short the EUR/CAD pair.

System:
This is based on the signal from Elite system on 1 hour charts.

Reason:
While I currently have a long position opened in this pair, its been seeing short term pull back. So as a hedge, I am also going short this pair. I also have the 3 EMA crossing below the 34 SMA and the CCI crossing below 0, which is a valid signal for the Elite system.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 3.5 star mainly because I entered the trade late. The bar was already formed and I have missed out on 10-15 pips.

Entry & Exit:
Entry (Short): 1.6022
Stop Loss: 1.6122

Trade Update - EUR/CHF Long CLOSED

Update 03-28-08 8am:
The CCI line fell below the 100 level. So time to take profits. We made about +17 pips per lot.

Total Pips: +50
Total Profit: $50

The Trade:
I found a new trading system on the ForexFactory forum by Waterflame called Elite. It seems like a very simple system and I decided to give it a try. Going long the EUR/CHF pair.

System:
This is based on the Elite system on 1 hour charts.

Reason:
Signaled by the Elite system. The 3 EMA is crossing over the 42 SMA. and the CCI is also crossing above 0 to indicate entry point.


Rating:
Since this is a new system, I don't think the rating would be correct (not that the trades I rate high have been good anyway). But I would rate this a 5 star just because its exactly as per the system.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 1.5698
Stop Loss: 1.5798

Trade Update - GBP/CHF Short CLOSED

Update 03-27-08 7am:
The remaining 2 lots reversed and hit the stop loss. Very disappointing.

Lot 1: +59 pips
Lot 2 & 3: -240 pips (120 * 2)

Total Pips: -181
Total Profit: $180.60

Update 03-26-08 9pm:
Lot 1 closed for +59 pip profit. Remaining lots currently trading at +54 pips.

Trade:
Shorting the GBP/CHF pair.

System:
This trade was mentioned in the OzFX forum using the AES technique. Its based on daily charts. I also got the same signal using the A-MACD system on 4 hour charts. I also have the HAS system give the signal (delayed though as we missed it by 2-3 bars).

Reason:
As far as I know, purely technical. On the OzFX system, we see that AC has shown 2 red bars and the Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are moving downward. On the A-MACD system, we see the MACD and AO have crossed below zero. And I have 2 red bars on the AO below 0.


Rating:
Since the spread for this pair is great, I will rate this a 4 star. The trade is in line with the long term trend and price is below the 200 SMA. And considering the signal is valid on 3 systems, I think its a good bet.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.99171
Stop Loss: 2.00371
TP1: 1.98671
TP2: 1.98171

Trade Idea - EUR/AUD Long

Update 03-27-08 12 noon:
Its a good thing that I didn't enter this trade. I would have been stopped out for yet another loss.

Idea:
The EUR/CAD long trade has been doing well, and the EUR/AUD pair too has moved up at the same time. This trade is not signaled by the A-MACD system and was previously signaled by the HAS system.


Possible entry price: 1.7251

Trade Update - EUR/GBP Long CLOSED

Update 03-30-08 9pm:
Yes another trade I closed out today as I felt it was moving down. But I noticed that after I closed the trade, it had moved up by about +17 pips as of this entry.

Total Pips: +57
Total Profit: $113.68

The Trade:
Going long the EUR/GBP pair.

System:
This is based on the A-MACD system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
Signaled by the A-MACD system. Price has been on steady increase. After a brief pull back. its back to the long term uptrend. We have crossover for both MACD and AO above 0. And we have 2 or more green bars on the AO.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 4 star. Its in line with the long term trend. The indicators line up well.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 0.7884
Stop Loss: 0.7784
TP1: 0.7934
TP2: 0.7959

Trade Update - USD/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 04-01-08 7am:
After days of struggling and trading within a tight range, this pair finally hit my stop loss today. Not sure why, but the equity markets showed surprising strength today and helped the Dollar rally.

Total Pips: -540 (180 * 3)
Total Profit: $535.53

Update 03-26-08 4:45pm:
We now got the short signal for this pair on the A-MACD system. So that reaffirms my trade. I am hoping to be able to close at least 1 lot in today's session.


The Trade:
Once again going with the dollar weakness story. Shorting this pair.

System:
This trade was signaled mainly by the HAS system on 4 hour charts. But it was also confirmed by "My System" on daily charts.

Reason:
Dollar weakness story. With the equity markets moving down today, it will help. The HAS system shows multiple red bars across various time frames. AO is also red and about to cross 0. We also see that the Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are moving down from oversold territory.



Rating:
I would rate this trade a 3 star due to the following reasons:

• I was late in entering this trade based on HAS system which has made me miss atleast 80 pips.
• I am not sure how well my modification to OzFX system to enter trades work.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 99.07
Stop Loss: 100.87
TP1: 98.57
TP2: 98.07

Trade Update - USD/CHF Short CLOSED

Update 03-27-08 12 noon:
The third lot hit the stop loss (just barely hit).

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: 0 pip

Total Pips: +150
Total Profit: $151.49

Update 03-26-08 2:30pm:
The 2nd lot closed for +100 pip profit. Final lot currently trading at +95 pips. Stop loss has been moved to BE.

Update 03-26-08 12 noon:
Closed the 1st lot for a +50 pip profit. Remaining lots currently trading at +65 pips.

The Trade:
My previous dollar trades are doing well. So continuing with the dollar weakness trend, I am going short this pair.

System:
This trade was signaled by both the HAS system and A-MACD system, both on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
The Dollar weakness story is working well so far. Plus this trade was signaled simultaneously by 2 systems. On the HAS system, the HAS indicator shows 2 red bars on multiple time frames. This confirms a strong trend. And on the A-MACD system, I have crossover below zero for both MACD and AO indicator. I also have 2 bars below 0 to confirm trend. And the trade is in the direction of the long term trend.



Rating:
I would rate this a 5 star. Signaled by 2 systems, the indicators are all aligned correctly, and price below 200 SMA.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 0.9985
Stop Loss: 1.0145
TP1: 0.9935
TP2: 0.9885

Trade Update - AUD/USD Long CLOSED

Update 03-30-08 9pm:
After hitting the first TP, this pair has been trading in a range, and I decided to close this trade as the signal had changed.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2 & 3: -68 pips (34 * 2)

Total Pips: -14
Total Profit: $14

Update 03-26-08 12 noon:
We have closed the 1st lot for a +50 pip profit. The remaining lots are currently trading at break even.

The Trade:
The final Dollar pair I was looking to enter. As with the previous trades, I am going long this pair.

System:
The beautiful part is that this trade was signaled by both the OzFX system on daily charts and the A-MACD system on 4 hour charts at the same time.

Reason:
Dollar weakness against other currencies. According to OzFX system, the AC & AO have turned green. Stoch, RSI and %R moving up. And by the A-MACD system, both MACD and AO have crossed over the 0 line.



Rating:
I would give this trade a 4.5 star since it was signaled by 2 systems. This is a rare occurrence. Also the trade is in direction of the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 0.9178
Stop Loss: 0.9078
TP1: 0.9228
TP2: 0.9278

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Long CLOSED

Update 03-31-08 3pm:
Another one of my best trade. I just closed when it hit my stop loss. Earlier in the day, it had gone up as high as +350 pips and I moved the SL to +250 pips. But weakness later in the day caused it to re-trace back to hi the SL. Too bad I opened just one lot wit this trade. It could have been extremely profitable.

Total Pips: +250
Total Profit: $243.83

Update 03-26-08 12 noon:
This trade has been the star of the day so far. The position is currently up +230 pips and I have moved the stop loss to +100 pips to lock profits. Too bad, I opened just one lot for this trade.

The Trade:
This is a little different from my previous trade which was based on the Dollar weakness. Here I am following the long term trend and going lonf the Euro.

System:
This is based on the A-MACD system, but a variation. We do not have a full crossover of the MACD and AO oscillators. Instead, after a brielf pull back (red bars), the AO is showing 2 green bars above 0 once again. I am using this as an entry signal.

Reason:
As explained above, this is a variation of the A-MACD system to extract more milage. Price has been on a steady uptrend on this pair. And we recently noticed a brief pull back. So this would be a good time to enter this trade again to catch an upside swing.


Rating:
This is a new variation I am trying, so I am not sure how good this will work. Hence I will rate this trade a 3 star. The things going for it is its in line with the long term trend. And we just recently had a small consolidation.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 1
Entry (Long): 1.5893
Stop Loss: 1.5693 (almost 200 since the ATR is large)

Due to the bigger stop loss on this pair, i have scaled back on the number of lots to 1 so I remain within the money management rules. I do not yet have a stop loss ofr this system, and will look to exit on signal reversal.

Trade Update - NZD/USD Long CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 9pm:
Finally hit the stop loss. Another big loss. And to think of it, I could have stopped this tarde for a lot lower since it was constantly trading in a range and showing signs of moving lower.

Total Pips: -360
Total Profit: $360

The Trade:
Continuing the dollar weakness pattern, I am going long this pair.

System:
This is based on the A-MACD system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
Weakness of dollar. Price moving up. Cross over on moving averages as well as MACD and AO. We have 2 or more bars above 0 on both these indicators confirming trend.


Rating:
I rate this trade a 4 star. I was just a little late in entering the trade. Other that that the indicators seem to align up and its a valid trade in line with the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 0.8258
Stop Loss: 0.7958
TP1: 0.8108
TP2: 0.8158

Trade Update - GBP/USD Long CLOSED

Update 03-28-08 7am:
The third lot hit the stop loss and closed for no gain.

Lot 1: +100 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: 0 pip

Total Pips: +200
Total Profit: +200

Update 03-27-08 7am:
The 2nd lot also closed for a +100 pip profit. Its been a real struggle with this pair. Hitting TP1, then reversing and almost hitting the SL before reversing once again and hitting TP2. The last lot is currently trading at +135 pips. SL has been moved to BE.

Update 03-26-08 12 noon:
Lot 1 closed for a profit of +100 pips. The pair then traded below my entry and has now moved back to +40 pip range. I have set the TP for 2nd lot to +100 pips.

The Trade:
Similar to my previous trade. The Dollar is weakening against the majors, and we are going long this pair.

System:
This is based on the A-MACD system on the 4 hour charts.

Reason:
We just got the signal for this trade. The moving averages have crossed over, and so has the MACD and AO. We also have 2 green bars in the AO above 0 which confirms the trend.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 5 star. Its got all the indicators correct. Price is also above the 200 SMA which is in line with the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 2.0006
Stop Loss: 1.9906
TP1: 2.0106
TP2: 2.0156

Trade Update - EUR/USD Long CLOSED

Update 03-31-08 10am:
Finally the third lot hit my target point and closed out. This has been a good trade, and probably one of my best so far in terms of the win.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: +269 pips

Total Pips: +419
Total Profit: $419

Update 03-26-08 10am:
The EUR/USD trades have been really good to me. I again closed the first 2 lots in this trade for +50 pips and +100 pips respectively. The third lot is currently trading at over +150 pips.

Update 03-25-08 3pm:
We got confirmation for this trade in the A-MACD system. So maybe now I can be double sure. As of now, I am up +15 pips per lot in this trade.


The Trade:
The Dollar is beginning to weaken again against other majors. So we are going long this pair.

System:
This is not based on any particular system. The closed it is related to is my system.

Reason:
After a brief rally, the Dollar is pulling back again against all majors. According to the OzFX system, the AC is green, but the AO is still red. And with the A-MACD system, we would have to wait for one more bar on the 4 hour chart to confirm trend, but we are very close.

So this trade is based on my system. The Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are moving back up form over sold territory. So we are going along with the ride.



Rating:
Since this is not based on any particular system, I am going to rate this a 3 star. Luckily for us, the trade is in line with the long term trend and above the 200 SMA.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (long): 1.5616
Stop Loss: 1.5516
TP1: 1.5666
TP2: 1.5716

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-26-08 11am:
Just a couple of hours ago, I was close to breaking even on this trade. But a sudden rally in this pair made me hit the stop loss and suffer a huge loss. Anyway, I shoudn't have entered this trade in the first place.

Total Pips: -450
Total Profit: $452.70

The Trade:
Entered the short side of the trade once again.

System:
This trade is based on the OzFX squeeze more on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
This almost seem like the perfect setup for a trade on the OzFX system. On the 4 hour charts, the price is starting to move down. The AC and AO indicators are showing red bars and going lower. And RSI, Stoch and %R indicators are moving down fro oversold territory. And finally the price is below the 200 SMA.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 5 star. This is a perfect setup where all the signals matches. Lets see if it was a good call.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 155.33
Stop Loss: 156.33
TP1: 154.83
TP2: 154.33

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Short CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 8pm:
There is a good reason why you have a rule not to enter a trade you just exited. And its precisely to protect you from trades like this one. I had made a nice profit with my previous trade on this pair earlier today. But I entered the same trade again, and ended up losing all the profits and more.

Total Pips: -300
Total Loss: $295.32

The Trade:
I entered this trade once again. The signal based on OzFX system still looks valid, and I feel I can make some more pips from this pair. So I am going short once again.

Here is the chart. All reason for entering the trade is similar to my previous post, including the chart.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.5680
Stop Loss: 1.5780
TP1: 1.5630
TP2: 1.5580

Trade Update - GBP/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 10pm:
This trade didn't quiet live up to my expectation. After the first lot closed for a +50 pips profit, the trade soon turned south and closed at stop loss.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2 & 3: -200 pips (100 * 2)

Total Pips: -150
Total Profit: 150.37

Update 03-24-08 12 noon:
This trade was also just signaled by the A-MACD system. So I can rest assured that I will make some money in this trade. :)

The Trade:
Long on GBP/JPY Pair.

System:
Based on OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
Weakness of Yen. Price moving up. AC & AO has multiple green bars confirming trend. Stoch, RSI and %R hooking up.


Rating:
3 star. Mainly cause I entered the trade late. We have already seen a 300 pips move today before I entered the trade.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 200.34
Stop Loss: 199.34
TP1: 200.84
TP2: 201.34

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Short CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 11am:
I closed the first 2 lots for +50 pips and +100 pips profit, but the final lot hit the stop loss.

Lot 1 (closed at 7:25am): +50 pips
Lot 2 (closed at 7:45am): +100 pips
Lot 3: o pips

Total Pips: +150
Total Profit: $147.51

Update 03-24-08 8am:
Talk about good timing. By the time I write this report after placing the trade, we have hit out first TP for a +50 pip gain. The remaining 2 lots are currently trading around +90 pip range.

The Trade:
This is similar to the EUR/AUD trade. I just had to wait a little longer to confirm this trade.

System:
This trade is based on the OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
The AUD, as well as CAD is showing some strength especially against the Euro. This seem like a brief consolidation after long bull move. One the chart, I have the AC and AO turn red. I had to wait a little longer to confirm that the Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are also moving down thereby confirming the trend.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 4 star. The Stock, RSI and %R indicators are hooking down from oversold territory. This indicates right time entering the trade. Only drawback is the price is above 200 SMA and we are going against the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (short): 1.5727
Stop Loss: 1.5827
TP1: 1.5677
TP2: 1.5627

Trade Update - GBP/CHF Long CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 10pm:
Another trade that failed to make it big. The 2 remaining lots hit the stop loss during the Asian session. Very disappointing as I was expecting some major pips from this trade.

Lot 1: +100 pips
Lot 2 & 3: 0 pips

Total Pips: +100
Total Profits: $100

Update 03-24-08 8am:
This trade has already hit its first target point of +100 pips. The remaining 2 lots are trading at +140 pips.

The Trade:
Going long on the GBP/CHF pair.

System:
This is the first trades placed on my new system. I call this the A-MACD system which will be explained in a later blog.

Reason:
The Yen has been weakening against all majors. From the chart we see that the AO has 2 or more bars above zero and increasing, and the MACD has just crossed above 0. This indicates an upward movement in price.


Rating:
Since its a new system, its still in testing phase and I don't know how to rate it. But I will give this trade a 3 star to begin with due to the following.

• We have had more than 4 positive and increasing bars on the AO before MACD turned green. This might indicate that there has already been a significant upside movement in price before I entered the trade.
• Price is below the 200 SMA. This means that the trade is against the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 2.01372
Stop Loss: None. We close the order when the signal changes or TP is hit.
TP1: 2.02372

Trade Update - EUR/AUD Short CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 9pm:
The third lot hit the stop loss.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: 0 pips

Total Pips: +150
Total Profit: $136.83

Update 03-24-08 7:30am:
This has been a good call so far. We closed the first 2 positions for +50 pips and +100 pips gain respectively. The third lot is currently trading over 100 pips. Stop loss has been moved to break even.

The Trade:
I reversed my previous open trade in this pair and entered the EUR/AUD short.

System:
This trade is based on the OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
After moving up for multiple weeks, the price seem to have reached a temporary peak and been moving down the last couple of days. Both the AC and AO have turned red. Stock, RSI and %R indicators are in oversold territory, and beginning to hook downward indicating a move lower.

Also interesting to note that in the HAS system, the 4 hour time frame is now starting to get a red bar indicating downward pressure for the next few days.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 3.5 star. This is because the long term trend for this pair has been upward, and the price is way above the 200 SMA.

Entry & Exit:
Entry (Short): 1.7076
Stop Loss: 1.7176
TP1: 1.7026
TP2: 1.6976

Weekly Summary - Mar 16th - Mar 20th

This was a short week on account of Good Friday and Easter holidays, but it still was a very volatile week, both for the market and my performance. The week started on a disastrous note for me. The very first trade I placed on the week, I broke all kinds of rules and made every mistake and was soon down almost $1400. I was lucky to get back to even on this trade. Read this post for the postmortem on this trade.

But apart from this trade, the rest of the week seem to progress smoothly, and I was about to make my 10% for this month by the end of this week. The came the fateful day of March 19th.

On this day, I decided to place almost 9 trades. A majority (5 out of 9) of the trades were successful, but the losers were big and far outweighed the winners and they killed me. And just like that, I had lost all the profits I had accumulated the past 2 weeks, and was even briefly down 4%. The biggest killer was the EUR/GBP trade. I was very confident on this trade, but despite the great signal, the trade went against me and hit stop loss. Even worse was the fact that each pip for this pair is worth $2 instead of the regular $1 with other pairs.

I currently have 4 open positions for this week. So the weekly results may change once the positions close.

Lessons from this week:

• Be more selective with your trades. 9 trades in a single day, especially when trading off a daily or 4 hour chart is excessive. Wait for that perfect setup.
• Obey the money management rules, no matter what. I removed stop, or did not place stop on certain trades hoping the trade would turn and I can break even. This is a sure way to lose your entire account
• Stick with the system. If you get a signal from a system, stick with it until you get stopped out, or hit the profit targets. I did not do this for the USD/JPY trade and closed it out for a loss, when I could have been sitting on a good profit right now.
• Do not trade around holidays. Usually days leading up to and following major holidays (like Good Friday for example) has low volume and hence high price volatility. This is a sure way to lose money as stops get hit easily.
  

Weekly Stats (Open trades not counted):

• Number of Trades: 21 (includes 2 open trades)
  
• Number of Wins: 11 (excludes 2 open trades)
• Win Percentage: 52.4%
• Win/Loss Ratio: 1.375 (excludes 2 open trades)
• Gross profit: $1423.30
  
• Gross Loss: $1884.84
  
• Net Profit: $461.54
  
• Avg. Profitable Trade: $129.39
  
• Avg. Losing Trade: $235.61