Forex Trading Journal: April 13, 2008

Trade Update - USD/JPY Short

Friday, April 18, 2008 at 10:27 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: USD/JPY Short

Reason/Setup:
Yet another trade based on the OzFX setup on 1 hour charts. And like the previous trades, it uses the same premise of the weakening of all CHF & JPY pairs. And the 30 minute & 1 hour setups showing identical chart patterns and trends.

The only difference in this trade is that I entered this pair twice for 2 separate trades. I placed too small a target for my first trade, and the signal was still strong. So I entered the trade once again.

Trade Details (Trade 1):

Date Entered: April 18 2008, 10:15am
Entry: 104.257
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: No stop loss.
Target: 103.957

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 11:10am
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +300
Profit/Loss: $288.59
Rating: 5

Trade Details (Trade 2):

Date Entered: April 18 2008, 11:10am
Entry: 103.955
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: No stop loss.
Target: 103.755

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 12noon
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +200
Profit/Loss: $192.76
Rating: 5

Comments:
Both trade were entered for the same reason. This was the final trade of the day and what a great way to end the week.

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Short

at 10:26 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/JPY Short

Reason/Setup:
This trade was entered based on the OzFX setup on 1 hour chart. Like the previous trades made today, this one too exhibited the perfect chart setup where the 1 hour and 30 minute indicators showed the common trend. It was easy to enter and make money in a setup like this. The reason why I am looking for just 30 pips instead of 50 pips like the other pairs is because the AC and AO have just turned in my entry candle.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 18 2008, 10:10am
Entry: 164.197
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: No stop loss.
Target: 163.897

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 12:20pm
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +300
Profit/Loss: $289.31
Rating: 5

Comments:
As I mentioned earlier, this is one of the easiest patterns to identify and make money off. Multiple time frames showing the same strong trend is not one to be missed. Another perfect trade which went in my favor right from entry.

Trade Update - GBP/JPY Short

at 10:23 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: GBP/JPY Short

Reason/Setup:
Like the previous trade, the 30 minute and 1 hour chart on the OzFX system seem to move in the same direction. One of those rare opportunities I need to make use of. What was different in htis trade from the previous one is that I had only 1 down candle before the candle where I entered. So I did not wait to see the trend being confirmed. But the 30 minute chart had a strong trend down which convinced me of the 1 hour following suit.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 18 2008, 10:10am
Entry: 207.761
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: No stop loss.
Target: 207.261

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 11:45am
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +500
Profit/Loss: $481.02
Rating: 5

Comments:
Yet another good trade. I may have been a little early in entry since I did not confirm the trend. But there were number of reasons which made me enter the trade. First was the strong trend shown by the 30 minute chart. I had already seen multiple lower closes in the price action. The in the 1 hour charts, the Stochs were wide indicating strength in the move lower.

Trade Update - GBP/CHF Short

at 10:21 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: GBP/CHF Short

Reason/Setup:
Something strange is happening currently. All the CHF and JPY pairs are pulling back, and more importantly, they all have the exact same chart patterns. I got this signal from the OzFX setup on 1 hour charts. The trend was also confirmed in the 30 minute chart.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 18 2008, 10:10am
Entry: 2.0393
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: Did not have a stop loss.
Target: 2.0343

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 11:30am
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +500
Profit/Loss: $490.52
Rating: 5

Comments:
Perfect entry and perfect exit. The chart pattern was ideal for this kind of trade. Its not too often that you have multiple time frames showing the same trend. I did not have a stop loss point for this trade, but the trend was strong and I was hoping to manually stop te trade if it reverses.

Trade Update - EUR/CHF Short

at 8:15 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade:EUR/CHF Short

Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the OzFX setup on 1 hour chart. However at the time of entry, the setup wasn't fully played out. The Stochs were just starting to move down, and the AC was red, but the AO wasn't. The 30 minute chart however showed a strong trend down, and that influenced my decision.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 18 2008, 8:07am
Entry: 1.61221
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 1.61521
Target: 1.60921

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 11:15am
Result: Closed position.
Total Pips: +38
Profit/Loss: $37.21
Rating: 3

Comments:
The entry was not the best. I could have waited a little bit more for teh setup to develop before entering the trade. Hence the low rating.

As the trade progressed, It spiked lower initially and then start pulling back up. The 30 minute chart indicated that the pair was losing steam in its move lower, so I decided to stop the trade and book the remaining profits. It was also the end of the week, and I did not want to hold on to any open positions over the weekend.

Trade Update - EUR/AUD Short

Thursday, April 17, 2008 at 5:25 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/AUD Short

Reason/Setup:
The main reason for this trade is the OzFX setup on daily chart. The price action showed a nice move down, and the AC and AO indicators had turned red. I also got the sell signal from the A-MACD and Elite setups on daily charts.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 17 2008, 5:30pm
Entry: 1.6958
Lots: 5
Stop Loss: 1.7008
Target: 1.6938 (TP was initially 100 pips. I changed this later so I can close the trade sooner_

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 11:20am
Result: Pair hit modified target point.
Total Pips: +100
Profit/Loss: $93.22
Rating: 5

Comments:
This was a well executed trade. Too bad I didn't want to hold any open positions over the weekend. Especially considering the week I had, I just wanted to close all trades and forget about it.

But it was a good entry. The entry was perfect even on the Elite and A-MACD setups on daily charts. And finally, this trade was also recommended in the OzFX forum for the day.

Trade Update - AUD/USD Short

at 1:01 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: AUD/USD Short

Reason/Setup:
This trade was entered based on the price action play on the 4 our chart. In this setup, I do not use any indicator, and enter trade purely based on the price action. In this particular case, after a move up, the price had formed 3 consecutive lower closes. This indicated a trend reversal and I entered the pair short. The chart shows the candle where I entered and where the target was hit. It also indicates the stop ad target levels.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 17 2008, 1pm
Entry: 0.93533
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 0.94066
Target: 0.92966

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 7:10am
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +300
Profit/Loss: $300
Rating: 5

Comments:
As it always happens in my trades, as soon as I entered the trade, the pair started moving against me. Fortunately for me, this time my stop loss was big enough and the pair eventually reversed its trend and moved closer to hit my stop loss.

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short

at 11:57 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/USD Short

Reason/Setup:
This trade was entered based on the squeeze indicator on 1 hour chart. Since my previous entry in this pair got stopped, I did not place a stop loss for this pair and decided to do it manually. The target was set 30 pips away. I did enter this trade a little late and hence missed out on 12 pips.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 17 2008, 11:55am
Entry: 1.58779
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: No stop loss.
Target: 1.58479

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 3:30am
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +300
Profit/Loss: $300
Rating: 3

Comments:
As it usually happens, as soon as I entered the trade, the pair moved higher. At one point, I was down almost 70 pips. But I still held on as the indicators kept saying the price is bound to move lower. And I was correct. Pretty soon, the price action reversed, and hit my target point. Too bad my target was very small as the pair continued to move a lot lower.

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short

Wednesday, April 16, 2008 at 6:17 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/USD Short

Reason/Setup:
This trade was entered based on the price action setup on 4 hour chart. As can be seen from the chart, the highlighted section shows the price action leading to the trade. We had 2 lower closes following a run higher indicating a trend reversal. As with the rules of the setup, I set the stop at the high of the triggering candle (candle following which lower closes were made), and his happened to be 50 pips away.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 16 2008, 6:15pm
Entry: 1.59306
Lots: 5
Stop Loss: 1.5980
Target: No target point set.

Date Closed: April 17 2008, 2:20am
Result: Pair hit stop loss.
Total Pips: -250
Profit/Loss: $247
Rating: 4

Comments:
Unfortunately, the stop in this case happened to be too close. The pair continued to just hit the stop and then proceeded to move down sharply. So I ended up getting stopped and moved the big move down.

Trade Update - USD/CAD Short

at 2:12 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: USD/CAD Short

Reason/Setup:
This trade was signaled in the squeeze setup on daily charts. Bu I was skeptical of this trade as all other setups and indicators indicated a move higher. But I still entered as I was given a signal.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 16 2008, 2:10pm
Entry: 1.0006
Lots: 5
Stop Loss: 1.0056
Target: 0.9906

Date Closed: April 17 2008, 4:00am
Result: Pair hit stop loss.
Total Pips: -250
Profit/Loss: $248.58
Rating: 3

Comments:
In the chart, the squeeze indicator still shows a red dot at the bar I entered. But this was green at the time of entry. The bar changed when the price moved higher. Also the next bar (next day) also signaled a sell and had I entered this one, it would have been more profitable. But I failed to take that trade.

The 3 rating is because other indicators pointed to a move higher. So I should not have taken this trade even though it was signaled by the squeeze. Or I should have had a wider stop for this trade.

Trade Update - EUR/AUD Short

at 2:08 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/AUD Short

Reason/Setup:
This trade was signaled by the Squeeze indicator on 4 hour charts. I entered the trade as soon as the indicator was triggered. Both stop and target were 50 pips away.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 16 2008, 2:07pm
Entry: 1.6975
Lots: 5
Stop Loss: 1.7025
Target: 1.6925

Date Closed: April 17 2008, 2:10am
Result: Pair hit stop loss.
Total Pips: -250
Profit/Loss: $234.30
Rating: 4

Comments:
The squeeze indicator was eventually right with the direction. I placed a tight stop than I should have (100 pips would have been more suitable). As it always happens, the pair move to hit my stop and then proceeded to move lower. The entry was a good one and I entered the trade as soon as the signal was given.

Trade Update - GBP/JPY Long

at 9:26 AM Posted by S Karthik

Trade Update - GBP/JPY Long

Reason/Setup:
This was one of those special trades which was signaled at the same time by multiple setups. I found the trade using the Elite setup on 4 hour charts. The 3 EMA was just crossing over the 34 SMA. While checking this pair on other setups, I noticed that they too were signaling the trade at the same exact time. On the A-MACD setup, the moving averages were crossing up and the AO and MACD indicators were also moving towards 0. And on the HAS setup, the CCI had crossed over 0, and the 4 hour HAS candle was showing blue.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 16 2008, 8:50am
Entry: 200.30
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: No stop loss.
Target: 201.30

Date Closed: April 16 2008, 10:10pm
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +1000
Profit/Loss: $1025
Rating: 5

Comments:
This is another example of a perfect trade entry. It was signaled exactly at the same time by multiple systems instead of signal by one and trend confirmed by another. That is one of the reason why I put a big target point for this trade. But in hindsight, the target was too small. The pair kept moving higher after hitting my target, and I missed out on a huge move.

Trade Update - GBP/CHF Long

at 8:23 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: GBP/CHF Long

Reason/Setup:
Entered this trade based on the Elite and OzFX setups, both on 1 hour charts. On the Elite setup, I was late in entering the trade. Target was placed 30 pips away, and I did not have a stop.

On the OzFX setup, I was late too. This was just to confirm the entry based on the Elite setup. The trend seem to be valid and hence I took the trade.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 16 2008, 8:25am
Entry: 1.97437
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: No stop loss.
Target: 1.97737

Date Closed: April 17 2008, 2:45am
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +300
Profit/Loss: $327.12
Rating: 3

Comments:
This was actually a poor trade to enter. The pair moved sideways for many hours before breaking out to the upside. And of course since I was just hanging on to this trade and it didnt move in my direction when I entered, my target was just 30 pips, and I missed a majority of the up move. An also not having a stop loss saved me in this case, as I could have been easily stopped while the pair was trading sideways.

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Short

at 7:25 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/CAD Short

Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the squeeze indicator on 1 hour and 4 hour chart. I was however late with my entry on both occasions. I had entered this very same trade based on other setup earlier and barely got stopped out. But the price action seem to suggest that the move lower was imminent and I took this trade. I did however not place a stop loss since I did not want to get stooped out like earlier. I decided that I will monitor the price action and stop the trade if I feel its reversing.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 16 2008, 7:30am
Entry: 1.5994
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: Did not have any
Target: 1.5954

Date Closed: April 16 2008, 3pm
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +400
Profit/Loss: $399.85
Rating: 3.5

Comments:
I might have been late with the entry, but this time I got the price movement right. But I did not place a proper stop loss, and that leads to more riskier trade. It would have probably been too late when I decided that the trend is reversing.

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short

Tuesday, April 15, 2008 at 4:55 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/USD Short

Reason/Setup:
I an entering this trade based on the trade idea from the Babypips website. The actual trade reasoning can be found in this link.

http://www.babypips.com/blogs/chart-art/sell_eurusd_7.html

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 15 2008, 10:42pm
Entry: 1.5820
Lots: 5
Stop Loss: 1.5920
Target: 1.5370

Date Closed: April 16 2008, 2:30am
Result: Pair hit stop loss.
Total Pips: -500
Profit/Loss: $500
Rating: 3

Comments:
While the babypips write up talks about how the pair has been in an uptrend for quiet a while and its time for a pullback, the charts probably suggested different. It seems like there is a strong upper resistance for this pair. Its been tested three times and the pair is yet to beak it. However, its also be constantly making higher lows. This indicates that its just a matter of time before the resistance level to broken to the upside, and thats exactly what happened.

What makes this even more confusing is that Stock and RSI indicators are conversing into a narrower range. This could indicate a breakout in either direction. And in this case, the direction seem to be up.

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Short

at 4:18 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/CAD Short

Reason/Setup:
This trade was signaled on multiple setups. The main signal was given by the OzFX setup, and was also mentioned in the forum. I had both the AC and AO showing red and the Stoch moving down. I was a little late with my entry in the OzFX system.

The A-MACD and Elite setups on 4 hour charts also signaled a short entry. And the entry was made as soon as the signal was given in bot these systems.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 15 2008, 4:20pm
Entry: 1.6055
Lots: 5
Stop Loss: 1.6105
Target: 1.5955

Date Closed: April 15 2008, 10:30pm
Result: Pair hit stop loss.
Total Pips: -250
Profit/Loss: $245.42
Rating: 4.5

Comments:
It was very unfortunate that I got stopped out on this trade. I had placed a 50 pip stop loss. But with a 10 pip spread, the stop loss was just 40 pips. And soon after I entered the trade, the pair moved higher and just managed to hit my stop loss. The fact that I entered the trade late on the OzFX setup did not help either. Soon after my stop was hit, the pair proceeded to move lower and move past my target point.

With pairs like this where the spread is larger, I should place wider stops and reduce my position size accordingly. A stop of 75-100 pips would have definitely helped me end this trade on the green.

Trade Update - AUD/JPY Long

at 1:43 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: AUD/JPY Long

Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the squeeze setup on weekly charts. I had entered this very same trade on the 13th but in the opposite direction. I had made a mistake when I failed to take into account the direction in which the indicator histogram was moving. Now I am late in entering this trade, but since its a weekly chart, I feel there is some room left for additional move higher.

IN order to minimize my risk and have larger stops, I entered with just 3 lots. I kept the stop 100 pips away and the target 150 pips away.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 15 2008, 1:45pm
Entry: 94.26
Lots: 3
Stop Loss: 93.26
Target: 95.76

Date Closed: April 16 2008, 7pm
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +450
Profit/Loss: $440.61
Rating: 5

Comments:
Even though I entered the trade very late, I felt I had some leeway since it was the weekly chart. My risk levels were right and the pair slowly but steadily move higher to hit my target. Very pleased with this trade. During the course of the trade, the HAS setup signaled this trade in the 4 hour charts.

Trade Update - USD/JPY Long

at 1:31 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: USD/JPY Long

Reason/Setup:
This trade was signaled by both the A-MACD setup and Elite up on 4 hour charts. On the A-MACD setup, I have the 5 SMA crossing over the 20 SMA. And the CCI is crossing above 0. And the AO and MACD are moving towards 0 indicating a buy.

On the Elite setup, the price had just broken the 34 SMA, and the 3 EMA crossed over the 34 SMA. I entered towards the end of the candle when the crossover happened. The 34 CCI had also crossed above 0.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 15 2008, 1:30pm
Entry: 101.819
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: Removed stop loss.
Target: 102.319

Date Closed: April 17 2008, 3:30am
Result: Pair hit target.
Total Pips: +500
Profit/Loss: $504.64
Rating: 3

Comments:
The entry on this trade was pretty close to perfect. I entered as soon as the signals were given. I initially set the stop loss to 50 pips. But soon after I entered the position, there was a brief pullback of the price, and it seemed like it would hit my stop loss. So out of panic, I decided to remove my stop loss and keep a watch on the price action to determined if and when I should manually stop the trade. At one point, I was down almost 100 pips on this trade or almost $1000. But I still help on to this trade as something kept telling me the price would start moving back up. I was right and the price did move back up and hit my target point, but I was not emotionally detached in this trade, and hence the 3 rating.

Midway through the trade when the price started bouncing back up, the trade was also signaled by the OzFX system.

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Long

at 12:10 PM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/CAD Long

Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the OzFX system on 1 hour chart. I entered solely based on the indicator and not the price action. The pair had been in a slow downtrend when I got a long signal using this setup. The AC and AO indicators were now showing green, and the Stoch was trending up. Since the spread on this pair is large, I kept a stop of 30 pips and a target of 25 pips.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 15 2008, 12:03pm
Entry: 1.6103
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 1.6073
Target: 1.6128

Date Closed: April 1 2008, 12:30pm
Result: Pair hit stop loss.
Total Pips: -300
Profit/Loss: $294.35
Rating: 3

Comments:
Looking back, this was a stupid trade to enter. I entered solely based on the indicators and not the price action. As seen from the chart, despite the Stoch, AO and AC all showing a move up, the price has been steadily declining. When entering a trade, I want to make sure the price action is confirming the trend. I want to see couple of candles in the direction I plan on entering. This is especially true in a 1 hour chart as mistakes can be very costly.

The low rating is due to the poor selection of trade to enter.

Trade Update - USD/CHF Long

at 11:20 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: USD/CHF Long

Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the A-MACD setup and Elite setup, both on 4 hour charts. On the A-MACD setup, we see the moving averages have just crossed higher. Both the AO and MACD are looking to cross above 0 and the CCI has already crossed over 0. Good entry point. On the Elite setup, we see the trigger candle where the 3 EMA has crossed over the 34 SMA. I enter the trade in the middle of the next candle. Over all a good entry. Since I got the entry correct, and the signal looks good, I am going with a 50 pip stop an target for this trade.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 15 2008, 11:20am
Entry: 1.00704
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 1.00204
Target: 1.00904

Date Closed: April 18 2008, 2:15am
Result: Pair modified target point.
Total Pips: +200
Profit/Loss: $198.19
Rating: 2

Comments:
I did make money in this trade, but I did not follow my rules. I should have lost money in this trade as had I stuck to my rules, the pair would have hit my stop loss. As soon as I entered, the price action reversed and I was soon close to hitting my stop loss. So I decided to remove my stop loss hoping that the pair would bounce up. But instead it continued going lower. Infact for most of the trade, I was down almost 100 pips, and at the lowest point, I was down almost 130 pips.

I also messed with my target point. I had initially set it to 50 pips. But when I saw price tanking, I changed it to 30 pips, and ultimately set it at 20 pips. I guess I was kinda lucky as they was a huge run on all CHF crosses on the 18th that caused my target to be hit. Overall, even though the entry was good, I should have followed my rules and cut my losses short when the price tanked. Maybe then I could have re-entered the trade when the opportunity arose.

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Long

at 11:15 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/JPY Long

Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the A-MACD and Elite setups, both on 4 hour charts. On bot these systems, the entry was near perfect. In fact this was probably the best entry I have even made following these setups, and substantially limited my downside move. The charts above show exactly where the entry was made.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 15 2008, 11:15am
Entry: 160.347
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 159.847
Target: 160.847

Date Closed: April 15 2008, 2pm
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +500
Profit/Loss: $491.02
Rating: 5

Comments:
Due to the near perfect entry on this pair I could keep a 50 pip stop and target point. In fact I could have kept a bigger target point, but I did not want to get too greedy. I have had a strong of losing trades, and I was desperate to get some wins under my belt for this week. This chart is also an example of how a stress free trade works. The pair continued to move up steadily with just the slightest of pullbacks.

Trade Update - EUR/CHF Long

at 10:59 AM Posted by S Karthik

The Trade: EUR/CHF Long

Reason/Setup:
I identified the trade based om the squeeze indicator on 4 hour chart. I was a little late in entering the trade and has already missed a 30 pip move, but the trade was also signaled by the Elite setup on 4 hour charts. Since it was signaled by 2 setups and the trend seem to be strong (clean break of the 3 EMA line from the 10 and 34 SMA in the Elite setup), I decided to enter the trade. It also gave me the confidence to have a 50 point stop and target. Later on, the trade was also signaled by the A-MACD system.

Trade Details:

Date Entered: April 15 2008, 11am
Entry: 1.58872
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 1.58372
Target: 1.59372

Date Closed: April 16 2008, 8:10am
Result: Pair hit target point.
Total Pips: +500
Profit/Loss: $500.58
Rating: 4

Comments:
This was a well executed trade. I was a bit late in entering the trade (and hence the 4 rating), but the trend was strong and I believed it was worth the risk. And I turned out to be right on this one. There was a little scare in between when the pair pulled back a little,. but overall it was a nice upward trend. The pair continued to move further up after hitting my targets.