Weekly Summary: Mar 31 - Apr 4

A small change in strategy added with more discipline than before resulted in a big change in the result. How big you ask? How about a profit of $3065.87 for the week? Now I know this could be a one time event and I cannot expect the same results every week. Or maybe even a big draw down next week, but it is a confirmation that the new strategy does work.

What Changed?
Up until this month, I was following trading systems which operate on long time frames. This also meant I was looking for 100-200 pip on average for every trade I enter. Now due to the bigger time frames, I had to have bigger stop losses which meant my position size were usually small (0.3 lots).

Towards the end of last month, I read something in the OzFX forums which made sense and decided to give it a try. Basically when you are trading with these setups that operate on higher time frames, the first 20-50 pip is the easiest to get. So why not enter a trade with bigger position size and capture these initial 20-50 pip move? And maybe if the signal is really strong, even try for the 100 pip move? So that's what I did this week. I usually entered trade with lot size of 1 (10 mini lots) and have the stop loss 50 pips away thereby risking a maximum of $500 a trade.

How do I Use It?
Now that is just one part of the strategy. I also need to be able to find the trend and get in at the correct time. For this, i used my different setups, each on a specific time frame. I used the OzFX system on daily and 4 hour charts, the HAS method on 1 and 4 hour charts, the A-MACD method on 4 hour charts and the Elite system on 15 minute to 1 hour charts. I generally enter the trade based on the trend from OzFX, HAS or A-MACD systems (higher time frame) and use the Elite setup on lower time frame to re-enter the trades. That way, I can I can enter the same pair multiple times and capture 20-50 pips each time.

What Did I Do Wrong?
Now all was not rosy this week. While I made lot of profit, I also made some trades I shoudn't have even though they made me money. It was just sloppy trading, like not having the discipline to wait for my limit orders to get filled, chasing the price, not putting stop losses correctly and meddling with the target points (greed = BAD). This is something I am hoping to improve on.

So here are the highlights of this week.

• Adopted a different trading strategy and its paid off handsomly so far. It still more testing to see its risk/rewards.
• Came across another trading system called the Elite which is simple and works great on lower time frames (1 hour and lower).
• More disciplined in my approach than last week. Did not enter any trades without a stop loss and target point. While I meddled with the target points to get more profit, I never adjusted my stop losses.

And finally the stats for the week. Instead of putting the numbers down, I am just going to give the trade report here.

Trade Update - GBP/JPY Long CLOSED

The Trade:
Going long the GBP/JPY pair.

System:
The trade is based on the Elite setup on 15 minute chart.

Explanation:

The Figure above shows the entry and exit point. I entered the trade based on the fact that when the 3 EMA hits the 34 SMA, there is normally a bounce. This is confirmed by looking at prior instances. And I was actually right about this idea, at least at the point where I entered.

• At 11:50pm I notice the price trying to bounce off the 34 SMA line. I enter long this candle (green) and place a stop loss 20 pips away, and target point 20 pips higher.
• The price initially goes higher, but falls back down and re-tests the 34 SMA line.
  
• Finally at 12:15am, my stop loss is hit and I am ot of the trade.
• Starting the next candle, we have a short rally before there is a sharp fall.

Results are as follows.

Total Pips: -200
Total Profit: $195.26

Mistakes:
There is one big mistake I made on this trade. That is to enter the trade very high. I entered the trade at the top end of the green bar instead of waiting it to fall closer to the 34 SMA. Add to it the 7 pip spread for this pair, and I am almost shooting myself in my foot. Had I waited for the bar to fall close to 34 SMA before entering, I might have escaped my stop loss being hit, and could have participated in the brief rally.

Rating:
Due to the poor entry, I have to rate this trade a 2.5 star. I could have done better. Just need more patience & discipline.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 204.582
Stop Loss: 204.382
TP: 204.782

Trade Update - GBP/CHF Long CLOSED

Update 04-04-08 7am:
I kept meddling with the target point for this pair moving it from 20 pips to 50 pips and back. Finally I set it to 30 pips before heading to bed and it was a great thing. The pair barely managed to hit the target before a big move down. The story today seem to be a strong Yen, but I am not going to enter any trades today.

Total Pips: +300
Total Profit: $296.99

Trade:
This pair has been on a strong uptrend, and I am entering it once again. Going long the GBP/CHF pair.

System:
This trade is based on the Elite setup in 1 hour chart.

Reason:
This pair has been on a strong uptrend. I entered it a few times yesterday successfully, and I am going to try to do that again today. The 3 EMA is still above the 34 SMA. I entered this trade when the 3 EMA crossed over the 10 SMA. The CCI shows a strong uptrend. I am looking for a 30 pip profit. Stop loss is placed just below the 34 SMA line.


Rating:
This trade would be a 4 star. The pair is on a strong uptrend. And the chart shows that every time the 3 EMA crossed the 10 SMA, there is a rally. So I am entering based on that. Looking for a 30 pip profit.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry(Long): 2.01795
Stop Loss: 2.01081
TP: 2.02095

Trade Update - USD/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 04-04-08 7am:
The strengthening of the Yen overnight stopped me out of this trade. There were couple of things I could have done better in this trade. First, I could have placed the stop loss point to be just below the 34 SMA line on entry instead of below the low of the previous candle. Since my entry point was close to perfect, this could have limited my loss when the signal reversed. Chart below shows what I mean.


Second, today being NFP day, I should not have been holding any Dollar positions. Its a major news event, and we know there aren't too many good news for the US economy at the moment.

Total Pips: -362
Total Profit: $355.17

The Trade:
Going long the USD/JPY pair.

System:
The trade is based on the Elite setup on 1 hour chart.

Reason:
As in my previous trade, its purely technical and based on the Elite setup. The 3 EMA has crossed over the 34 SMA and the 34 CCI has crossed above 0.


Rating:
Again this trade was entered perfectly as soon as the crossover occured. So I would rate this trade a 5 star. The only rish is that tomorrow is NFP day, and I need to get out of the trade by then. But I am looking for just a 20 pip profit. The stop loss has been placed below the lows of previous candle.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (long): 102.573
Stop Loss: 102.210
TP: 102.773

Trade Update - USD/CHF Long CLOSED

Update 04-03-08 11pm:
I got stopped out of this trade. The low volume definitely had a say. Also I feel I should have placed my stop tighter. Since I entered very close to the 34 SMA line, I should have placed my stop just below that line rather than below the low of the previous candle. That could have cut my loss by half.

Total Pips: -248
Total Profit: $245.46

Lesson: Do not enter trades between 4pm EST and 1am EST as the volume is extremely low.

The Trade:
I had mentioned this in my watch list for the day. Going long the USD/CHF pair.

System:
This trade is based on the Elite setup on 1 hour chart.

Reason:
Perfect entry setup using the Elite setup on 1 hour chart. The 3 EMA was crossing over the 34 SMA. The 34 CCI has just crossed over 0.


Rating:
I believe I entered the trade to perfection. So this would rate as a 5 star. Only drawback is that this trade is against the long term trend. But we are looking for 20 pip profit target. So that is hopefully not important.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 1.01293
Stop Loss: 1.01045
TP: 1.01493

Watch List for April 3rd.

Here is my watch list for April 03-04.

OzFX(Daily):

• AUD/USD Long - price above 200 SMA. AC and AO showing red. Stoch oving higher. RSI and %R are flat.
• EUR/GBP Short - more than half way into the trend. Should be used only for small short term moves.
• EUR/JPY Short - currently in overbought territory. Need to watch for a pullback.
• EUR/AUD short - well into the trend. should be used for small moves.
• GBP/CHF Long - mid way into the trend. Stoch in overbought territory. Enter for short moves.

HAS(4 hour):

• EUR/USD long - Both the H4 and D1 HAS bars indicate a blue. Need to wait for a confirming blue candle to enter long.
• AUD/USD Long - H4 shows blue candle, but D1 still shows red. But the AO indicator is green and about to cross above 0.
• EUR/CAD short - H4 has been showing red candles all along. D1 is starting to turn red. But we might be at the tail end of the move.

A-MACD(4 hour):

• EUR/USD long - the moving averages havn't crossed yet, but its very close. The CCI is also very close to crossing above 0.
• GBP/USD long - currently in this pair. Will look to hold it.
• AUD/USD long - The moving averages have crossed over and the CCI is above 0. But ot dosen't look like a strong signal.
  

Elite(1 hour):

• EUR/AUD long - the 3 EMA just crossed over the 34 SMA. CCI is above 0.
  
• EUR/CHF long - moving averages clossed over. Little late for entry, but the price is still close to the 34 SMA due to low volume. Has strong uptrend.
  
• USD/CHF long - moving averages looking to cross over. Good time to enter. Tomorrow is NFP, so be cautious.
• USD/JPY long - moving averages close to crossing over.

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 04-04-08 7am:
Another trade where I messed with the target point moving it between 20 and 50 pips. But I was lucky to set it to 30 pips before going to bed. The last up candle hit the target point before a broad Yen rally caused the pair to pullback steeply.

Total Pips: +300
Total Profit: $293.24

The Trade:
Going long the EUR/JPY pair.

System:
The trade is entered based on the Elite setup on 1 hour charts.

Reason:
On the 1 hour chart, we see the price move back up after a brief consolidation. The Euro has been on an extended uptrend against the Yen the past week, and I am trying to follow that trend. The 3 EMA has just crossed over the 34 SMA on the Elite setup. The 34 CCI has also broken above 0. I don't have the perfect entry timing, but I think I should still be able to catch the trend. I am looking for a 50 pip target point and I have the stop loss just below the 34 SMA.


Rating:
I will rate this trade a 4 star. The Euro has been on an extended uptrend against the Yen. And while a pullback is imminent, I think I will be able to catch this ride. I didn't get the entry spot on, but I am not too far from the 34 SMA.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 160.517
Stop Loss: 160.117
TP: 161.017

Trade Update - GBP/USD Long CLOSED

Update 04-04-08 7am:
I am proud of this trade. Caught the trend early. Confirmed it using 2 system. Had the confidence in the setups and entered with 10 lots as I felt the risk/reward was worth it. I also did not mess with the stop loss or target points. End result is that my target point was hit overnight for my biggest profit. I need to do more of these types of trade. One or 2 a month would if you ask me. The question is do I have the patience and discipline to wait the rest of the days for a perfect setup like this?

Total Pips: +1000
Total Profit: $1000

The Trade:
Going long the GBP/USD pair.

System:
This trade was entered based on the A-MACD 4 hour setup. The trend is also confirmed by other setups.

Reason:
On the A-MACD setup, we have the 5 SMA cross over the 20 SMA. And the 34 CCI crossing above 0. We also have the AO and MACD moving towards 0.

We also have trend confirmation on other setups. On the OzFX setup on the daily chart, we have the AC turn green and the Stoch and other indicators moving up.

On the HAS setup with hourly charts, we see 2 or more blue bars on multiple time frames confirming trend.

And finally on Elite system on hourly charts, we see the 3 EMA has already broken through the 34 SMA and trending strongly higher.

A-MACD(4 hour):
OzFX(Daily):
Trend(Daily):
HAS(1 hour):
Elite(1 hour):

Rating:
I will rate this trade a 4 star. We are catching right at the start of a trend based on a 4 hour chart. Couple of drawbacks in this entry. The current candle which caused the crossover is a huge one. This might signify a pullback in price soon. And also, I did not wait for trend confirmation by trying to enter in the next candle.

I think this trade requires patience to develop. It might have short term pullback, but will move higher given some time.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 1.99417
Stop Loss: 1.98417
TP: 2.00417

Trade Update - USD/CHF Long CLOSED

Update 04-02-08 9:15pm:
It took some time and even looked like it might go on to hit the stop loss, but the pair moved higher once the volume started picking up.

Total Pips: +100
Total Profit: $98.74

The Trade:
Impulse buy based on the Elite setup. Going long the USD/CHF pair.

System:
This is based on the Elite setup on 15 minute charts.

Reason:
The 3 EMA crossed over the 34 SMA. The 34 CCI also crossed over 0 indicating an entry point. However I am late getting into the trade by 2 bars. I might have missed 5-10 pips because of that. Also the longer term trend is down as can be seen by the direction of the 34 SMA.


Rating:
I will rate this trade a 2.5. This was more of an impulse buy rather than a proper entry. The trade is against the longer term trend which is not good.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 5
Entry (Long): 1.01080
Stop Loss: 1.00580
TP: 1.01280

Trade Update - USD/CAD Short CLOSED

Update 04-04-08 10am:
I finally closed the 3rd lot for a +58 pip profit. The Dollar is getting weaker, and I am seeing a trend reversal on all the indicators. So taking whatever profits I can.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: +58 pips

Total Pips: +208
Total Profit: $206.92

Update 04-03-08 12 noon:
The 2nd lot closed for +100 pip profit. So far we are in the money on this trade. Stop loss has now been moved to break even, and I am going to let the third lot run until the signal reverses or weakens.

Update 04-03-08 8am:
The first lot closed for +50 pip profit. The remaining 2 lots are currently trading at +48 pips.

The Trade:
Going short the USD/CAD pair.

System:
The trade is based on the A-MACD setup on the 4 hour chart.

Reason:
We have a very nice setup for the pair on the A-MACD system. Price has been trending down, and the MACD has just turned below 0. The Ao shows 2 red bars below 0 confirming the trend.

The downtrend is further confirmed by other setups. The OzFX setup on daily charts shows the Stoch heading down as well as the AO and AC showing red bars.

A-MACD(4 hour):
OzFX(daily):
Trend(daily):
HAS(4 hour):

Rating:
I will rate this trade a 4 star. Trade looks perfect on the A-MACD setup. The OzFX looks promising too except the price is above the 200 SMA.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.01481
Stop Loss: 1.02481
TP1: 1.00981
TP2: 1.00481

Trade Update - GBP/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 04-02-08 10:45pm:
Quiet a few ups and downs on this pair. For sometime, I thought I was going to get stopped out, but in the end, all it needed was some trading volume.

Total Pips: +500
Total Profit: $486.24

The Trade:
Going long the GBP/JPY pair. Yen has been weak against all majors.

System:
The trade was entered based on the Elite setup on 15 minute charts. The trend was confirmed by both the OzFX, HAS and A-MACD setups.

Reason:
Strong uptrend. Confirmed by 3 different setups. The OzFX setup on daily chart shows the AO and AC showing green bars, and the Stoch, RSI and %R trending up. The HAS system on 4 hour charts show blue mars on multiple time frames and same with the A-MACD system.

The trade was enetred based on the Elite setup on 15 minute charts. I noticed that when there is a price pullback on this pair for the current trend, it always bounced off the 10 SMA. So I look to enter the next candle to the candle which crossed the 10 SMA down.

Elite (M15):
A-MACD (4 hour):

Rating:
I will rate this trade a 4 star. Its been on a storng uptrend, and I see it going higher for the short term. I have a +50 pip target point for the trade.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 203.679
Stop Loss: 203.179
TP: 204.179

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 04-02-08 11:30pm:
I re-entered this pair 2 more times based on the Elite 15 minute setup. As with other trades today, this was lagging behind for quiet a while when thevolume was low. But once the volume picked up, so did the price and I was minting money. :)

Here are the results.

Trade 2:
Total Pips: +200
Total Profit: $194.36

Trade 3:
Total Pips: +250
Total Profit: $243.13

Update 04-02-08 8am:
This trade didn't take too long to hit the target point either. Will be looking to re-enter this pair again.

Total Pips: +200
Total Profit: $194.86

The Trade:
Now for all the money I lost last month trading this pair short, I am going to make it up. Finally I realized that this pair is in a strong uptrend. So long the EUR/JPY pair.

System:
I did not get any signal for this pair except for the 15 minute Elite charts, but te trend has been confirmed by the A-MACD and HAS systems.

Reason:
I made the mistake of repeatedly shorting this pair last month as it moved almost 600 pips against me. Finally I am jumping into the long train. Am I too late? The A-MACD and HAS setups on 4 hour chart says the trend is still strong. And the 15 minute Elite setup gave me an entry signal.

Rating:
Just going with the strong uptrend to scalp 20 pips. I will rate this a 4 star.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 159.948
Stop Loss: 159.448
TP: 160.148

Trade Update GBP/CHF Long CLOSED

Update 04-02-08 9:15pm:
Took a while due to low volume, but the pair raced higher(currently over 20 pips higher from my TP) once the volume picked up and hit my target point.

Total Pips: +200
Total Profit: $197.67

Update 04-02-08 6pm:
Went long this pair yet another time today. This time based on the Elite setup on 15 minute charts. I feel I got a good entry point for this pair. Just got to make sure the trend sticks.


Update 04-02-08 2:20pm:
I made yet another trade on this pair that wiped out the profits I had made from the previous 2 trades. There were 2 reasons for the loss.

One was that, I did not shop the patience and discipline to enter the trade at my pre-arranged level. Instead, when my buy limit was not triggered on the pullback (missed by less than a pip), I decided to chase the price and got in at a higher rate. This is especially bad for a pair with big spread like this one.

The other was that I failed to follow my exit rules. My observation based on the Elite setup on 15 minute chart was that the pair always managed to bounce off the 34 SMA, and that would be a good entry point. But instead, I kept holding on to the pair and not cutting my losses short when the pair continued to move below the 34 SMA. The trend had clearly been broken, and I had to cut my losses short which I didn't.

Here is a chart of the trade I entered.


And the results of my 3rd trade:

Total Pips: -346
Total Profit: $343.20

Update 04-02-08 8:15am:
I re-entered this pair again, but closed it out for a small profit before it hit my target point. I felt the risk was too great. But what I noticed was that in the Elite setup, whenever there is a pullback, it bounces off the 34 SMA. So this seems to be the idea place (and less risk) to put a buy limit order to get into the next wave.

Results of second trade:
Total Pips: +60
Total Profit: $59.18

I have put a buy limit order at 2.00559.

Update 04-02-08 7:40am:
This trade just took 10 minutes to hit its target. nice quick way to earn 200 pips. I will be looking to re-enter this trade again.

Total Pips: +200
Total Profit: $197.23

The Trade:
Still a valid signal on OzFX and A-MACD systems, and its been rallying all night. So going long this pair again.

System:
The original signal is based on the OzFX daily setup and A-MACD 4 hour setup. But this particular entry is based on the Elite setup.

Reason:
I entered this trade originally based on the signal from OzFX and A-MACD setup. Those signals are still valid and the pair is still in an uptrend. So I am just following the trend to get some small pips.



Rating:
I would rate this trade a 4 star since the main trend is still alive and strong. The only risk is that we might be entering the trade at the tail end of the trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 2.00714
Stop Loss: 2.00514
TP: 2.00914

Trade Update - EUR/GBP Short CLOSED

Update 04-03-08 7am:
I guess I was a bit premature in exiting this trade. This is one of those OzFX trades on the daily chart which has a perfect setup and take time in developing. Had I held on to it, it would have been a wild ride. Down almost 20-30 pips at a point, but currently up over 50 pips.

Lesson: Give OzFX daily chart setups time to develop. Do not closed the trade based on smaller time frame. And HAVE PATIENCE!!!

Update 04-02-08 11:30pm:
I had lot of hope for this pair, but its been basically trading sideways. It missed my target point by less than a pip yesterday, and been trading around break even all day today. Maybe if I was patient enough, it will eventually hit the TP. But I decided to close the position instead and invest elsewhere.

Total Pips: +28
Total Profit: $55.66

The Trade:
Shorting the EUR/GBP pair.

System:
This trade is entered based on 2 systems. The OzFX setup on the daily chart gives this signal. Then on the 4 hour chart with the A-MACD setup, I just got this signal.

Reason:
This trade is signal led by 2 setups. The OzFX on the daily chart, and the A-MACD on the 4 hour chart.

OzFX(daily):
A-MACD(4 hour):
Trend(daily):
HAS(4 hour):
Elite(M15):

Rating:
I will rate this trade a 4.5 star. Signaled by 2 setup, this looks very promising. Only drawback is the price which is above the 200 SMA for a short trade.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 5
Entry (Short): 0.78813
Stop Loss: 0.79313
TP: 0.78513

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short CLOSED

Update 04-02-08 12:30am:
Looks like traders in the Asian and London session are not participating in the Dollar rally ahead of Bernake's speech tomorrow. I re-entered this trade and was stopped out. Here are the result of my 2nd trade.

Total Pips: -500
Total Profit: $500

Update 04-01-08 11pm:
Just a little over 3 hours for me to close this trade and make a cool 300 pip profit. The signal is still valid, and I will be looking to re-enter.

Total Pips: +300
Total Profit: $300

The Trade:
Continuing from where I left of earlier today. The signal from OzFX system is still valid. So I decided to enter this trade again for a 20 pip target.

System:
As mentioned above, the signal is based on the OzFX setup based on the daily chart.

Reason:
After the bog rally in the equity markets, the Dollar is still showing some strength against other majors. The OzFX signal is still valid. AC and AO still show red, and the Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are trending down. So I decided to enter this trade again for a short 20 pip target.


Rating:
I wold rate this trade a 4 star. The price is still above 200 SMA for a short entry, but the trend is strong, so we should see some positive result.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Short): 1.55932
Stop Loss: 1.56432
TP: 1.55632

Trade Update - GBP/CHF Long CLOSED

Update 04-02-08 12:30am:
I decided to enter one final trade before hitting the bed, but it turned out badly and got stopped out. Luckily I entered with just 3 lots for this trade. Here are the results.

Total Pips: -150
Total Profit: $148.19

Update 04-01-08 11pm:
I re-entered this trade once again and made another quick killing. This time, it took just 20 minutes to make the 300 pips. Here are the stats for trade 2.

Total Pips: +300
Total Profit: $295.58

Update 04-01-08 10pm:
Has to wait almost 6 hours to get the 200 pips on this trade. But as long as I see green, its all good. The trend is still valid, so I might look to re-enter this trade.

Total Pips: +200
Total Profit: $197.34

The Trade:
Going long the GBP/CHF pair.

System:
Based on the A-MACD system on 4 hour charts. But its also signaled by the OzFX and Elite systems.

Reason:
The setup looks good and the indicators line up. I probably entered the trade a little late. But given below are the charts for the trade. As before, I am looking for a quick 50 pip profit and going in with a large lot.

A-MACD (4 hour):
OzFX (Daily):
Trend(daily):
HAS(4 hour):
Elite(1 hour):

Rating:
I would rate this a 4 star. Even thought we are a little late, we have confirmation from multiple systems. One drawback is that the price is below the 200 SMA. The other drawback is the size of the spread. Its close to 7 pips, and that can be the difference between hitting my target point or not.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 2.00175
Stop Loss: 1.99675
TP: 2.00675

Trade Update - USD/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 04-01-08 11:40am:
That was some quick profit. Just spent an hour for it to hit the target point. I am beginning to like this short term trading strategy.

Total Pips: +200
Total Profit: $195.95

The Trade:
Playing the short term dollar strength, I am going long the USD/JPY pair.

System:
This is based on the Elite system on 15 minute chart. I missed the signal at the beginning, I am trying to get into a trade for small profits when the 3EMA crosses over the 10SMA confirming continuing trend.

Reason:
The Dollar has been on the up trend against the Yen for couple of days now. And its especially showing some strength today. I missed the initial entry, but I am using the Elite system charts to get in for some small pips.

From the chart, the 3 EMA is crossing over the 10 SMA indicating a possible move up again. The 34 CCI is just below 100 and looking to bounce above it again.

Other systems also show that the trend is strong.

Elite (15 min):
A-MACD (4 hour):
OzFX (Daily):
HAS (4 hour):

Rating:
I would rate this trade a 3.5 star. I am not getting in at the beginning of the trend, but rather in the middle or even late. But I am just looking for a quick 20 pip profit and have a 50 pip stop loss.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 101.862
Stop Loss: 101.362
TP: 102.062

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short CLOSED

Update 04-01-08 2pm:
I traded this pair 3 times today. The number of lots used were the same. The first trade hit my TP of +70 pips. The next one was a quick +20 pip scalp and the final one was a -26 pip loss.

Trade 1: +700 pips
Trade 2: +200 pips
Trade 3: -263 pips

Total Pips: +637
Total Profit: $637

The Trade:
The Euro has moved to new highs against the Dollar, and its now time for some pull back. Shorting the EUR/USD pair.

System:
The trade is based on the OzFX system on daily charts. But its also very close to being signaled by the A-MACD system.

Reason:
After the rally, its now time for the pullback and brief consolidation. According to the OzFX system, the price is now in pullback mode. AC and AO have turned red. And the Stoch is moving downward form oversold territory.

On the trend indicator, we see the RSI, Stoch and %R moving down confirming downward trend.

On the A-MACD system, we see the 5 EMA has crossed below the 20 EMA. The 34-CCI is almost crossing the 0 mark indicating a down turn.

OzFX:
Trend:
A-MACD:
HAS:
Elite:

Rating:
This trade would be a 4 star. The indicators all signal correctly. However the price is above the 200 SMA and we are shorting the pair which is going against the long term trend. But since the indicators all point to a strong trend, I am going into this trade with a bigger position, but targeting only a 50-75 pip profit per lot.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Short): 1.57243
Stop Loss: 1.58234
TP: 1.56543

Trade Update - EUR/CHF Short CLOSED

Update 04-01-08 7am:
Not surprisingly, the only trade I picked from the ones recommended decided to go against me and hit the stop loss. The sudden Dollar rally can be given as an excuse for the failure. I am however not sad with the trade as I followed the rules. If there is any complain about the trade, it is that I entered it without the AO showing red.

Total Pips: -300
Total Loss: $296.94

Update 03-31-08 10pm:
So few hours after I opened this trade, I noticed that except this pair, all the remaining pairs have gone according to the recommendation. So I thought this was the safest trade of the bunch given the level of Stoch, RSI etc. But it turns out its the worst. So I have analyze the trades once again to see what I missed.

The Trade:
This was one of the trades I picked from the OzFX forum recommendations today. Going short the EUR/CHF pair. The other trades recommended for the day at the forum are as follows.

- GBP/USD Short
- NZD/JPY Short
- USD/CAD Long
- AUD/JPY Short
- EUR/JPY Short

System:
The trade is based on the OzFX system on daily charts. Note that this is the original OzFX system. The AO is still not red when entering this trade.

Reason:
The price is below the 200 SMA and AC has turned red and about to cross 0 in the daily charts. The Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are also trending down for this pair. Checking up the pair on other system, I see that the downtrend has already started, or about to start in the other systems depending on the time frame. Shown below are the pictures form all systems starting with the OzFX.

OzFX:
Trend:
A-MACD:
HAS:
Elite:

Rating:
Considering that the trade is in direction of the long term trend, this is relatively safe. The Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are trending down and not yet in over sold territory indicating there is some downward pressure left. And finally, I should see the trade being signaled on the HAS and A-MACD system soon. Considering the above, I would rate this trade a 4 star.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.56727
Stop Loss: 1.57727
TP1: 1.56227
TP2: 1.55727
TP3: 1.55227

Weekly Summary: Mar 23rd - Mar 28th

Yet another bad losing week. The reason again was just lack of discipline. I entered way too many trades, and I entered trades without proper setups. And the worst mistake of all, which I still have open is to open a trade with no stop loss. This trade (EUR/JPY Short) was in fact from the previous week, but it continued to get worse, and I am still having it open. But I will be closing all open positions tomorrow to close out the month.

Lets first start with the highlights of the week.

• The main highlight of the week was the finding out yet another trading system called the 'Elite'. This is a system I came across ForexFactory, and its by 'WaterFlame'. I am just using the system as described by him.
• Picked up some good setups and let the profits run. Notable among the trades were the EUR/USD and EUR/CAD trades which are still open.

Thats about it for the highlights. Not much to mention there. Its not the losing trades that bothers me as much as the lack of discipline. I enter too many trade, enter trades with bad or sometimes no setups, and break basic money management rules. If I keep this up, I will never be able to trade with real money.

Alrite, moving into something more pleasant, I have been reading some forums where they have been talking about other money management and position sizing methods. The idea is to open larger number of lots, but taking small pip profits. Considering that in the setups that I use, the easiest profit is made in the first 50 pips, why not open more lots (say 10) and close them all out at 50 pips? I will give this idea a shot next month to see how feasible it is. The biggest drawback is that in case of a string of losers, I might drain out my equity pretty quickly and go out of business. So its of at most importance that my system had a very high success rate.

Now finally on to the stats for the week.

• Number of Trades: 18
  
• Number of Wins: 11
  
• Win Percentage: 61.11%
• Win/Loss Ratio: 1.571
  
• Gross profit: $1429.70
  
• Gross Loss: $1688.38
  
• Net Profit: $258.68
  
• Avg. Profitable Trade: $129.97
  
• Avg. Losing Trade: $241.19