Trade Update - EUR/GBP Short CLOSED

Update 03-25-08 1pm:
As its happened before, I managed to close this pair at the absolute top for a loss. Had I stuck on, I would be close to break even now. The signal is still valid for this pair.

I need to learn to STICK TO THE SIGNAL.

Update 03-25-08 7am:
Yes another loser. And this is getting worse. It looked like the signal for this pair has turned. So I closed out this pair.

Total Pips: -120 (30 * 3)
Total Loss: $173.10

The Trade:
Contrary to my previous trade of this pair, I am going short this pair.

System:
This is based on the OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
On the technical side, the indicators lined up correctly. Price is thinking of moving down, while the AC and the AO are showing red. RSI, Stoch and %R are moving down.

Also considering my previous trade of this pair was to go long, and I was stopped out since the price moved down, I think its worth a chance to try the short side.


Rating:
I would give this trade a 2.5 star due to the following reasons:

• This pair has already had a significant move to the downside, and further downside move might be limited.
  
• The price is above the 200 SMA, so its against the long term trend.
• The markets are closed tomorrow, and hence low volume might result in greater volatility.
• I just got stopped out of this pair. It might be prudent to wait longer before entering again.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 0.77746
Stop Loss: 0.79046
TP: 0.76746

Trade Update - EUR/AUD Long CLOSED

Update 03-23-08 10:30pm:
I excited this trade today for a loss. Mainly because I got the opposite signal from the OzFX system.

Total Pips: -249 (83 * 3)
Total Loss: $223.96

The Trade:
Once again I am entering the EUR/AUD pair. This time I am not going to use any stops, and going to let this pair run.

System:
Based on the HAS system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
I barely got stopped out on my previous trade, and now the stock has recovered and even moved past my previous entry point. So this time I decided to not have any stop instead, and let the stock run its course for a week or so and see what happens.

On the technical side, we still have the blue candles across multiple time frames to confirm the trend. I may be late to the party, but this bull run has been going on for some time, and I dont see why it shouldn't continue.


Rating:
I will rate this trade a 2.5 star. I entered this trade pretty late, so it might not have the upside momentum. But I am hoping for a slow and steady rise up.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 1.7159

I don't have any stops or target points set for this trade yet. I will look to exit when signals change.

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 04-01-08 7pm:
New month, so I finally decided to close this trade. My worst trade ever. But there is no one to blame. I entered at the worst possible point, at the very bottom. Then I placed no stop loss thinking the long term trend was down. And then I did not exit the trade when the signals turned hoping it would turn back. And to my luck, even when the signals indicated a move down, the Euro showed surprising strength and continued its move higher.

Total Pips: -1240 (620 * 2)
Total Profit: $1219.87

The loss does not include the rollover charge. If I add that, it would be another 50 bucks more. This single trade has ruined my progress in Forex so far.

Update 03-24-08 10am:
Considering that I am down a lot in this trade (about -325 pips per lot), I decided to hedge my position. This is also based on the OzFX system which signaled a buy. I have attached a chart.


Here are the trade parameters.
Lots:3
Entry (Long): 155.494
Stop Loss: 154.494

The Trade:
Going short the EUR/JPY pair.

System:
HAS system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
Couple of them. First the Euro is weak today and Yen is gaining strength. So this would be the best pair to play that. Next, the indicators are all confirming the trend. More than 2 red candles and 2 or more red bars below 0 for AO.


Rating:
I would have rated this trade a 4.5 if I got in earlier. But I was asleep at that time. So now that I have missed a 250 pips move, I will rate this a 3 star instead.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 2
Entry (Short): 152.15
Stop Loss: 153.45
TP1: 151.65
TP2: 151.15

Trade Update - USD/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 03-20-08:
I should have just stuck to the charts and the system and not closed this trade yet. As of now, the pair is trading at 99.526, which wold have translated to a profit of +31 pips per lot instead of the loss I took. Lesson learnt.

Update 03-20-08 9am:
I exited this trade before it hit the stop loss. I realized that the Yen was gaining strength against all majors, and my other trades were with that trend. And this one was against that trend.

Total Pips: -139
Total Profit: $141.26

The Trade:
The Dollar is showing some strength. So going long the USD/JPY pair.

System:
This trade is based on the modified OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
The technicals point towards a brief rally. Both AC and AO show red bars. However both of them are below 0. Stoch, RSI and %R indicators trending up. The Dollar has been in a rally mode against all currencies the past few days. And there is also news that big buy orders are coming into this pair.


Rating:
I will rate this trade a 3 star due to the following.

• The price is below the 200 SMA and hence we are going against the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 99.219
Stop Loss: 98.219
TP1: 99.719
TP2: 100.219

Trade Update - EUR/CHF Short CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 7am:
The Euro was weak against almost all pairs except the Swissy. Wonder why. Anyway, after I got closed out of the GBP/CHF pair, I decided to cut my loss short on this one. I might have been wrong in doing that, but we will see.

Total Pips: -120
Total Profit: $118.25

The Trade:
Continuing with the numerous Euro pair trades I already have, I am entering short the EUR/CHF pair.

System:
Based on the HAS system on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
Purely technical. According to the HAS system, this trade is signaled. Price moving down. @ red candles across multiple time frames. AO sowing red bars below 0.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 3.5 star. Mainly because the lower time frame might have a short term upswing.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 2
Entry (Short): 1.5580
Stop Loss: 1.5680
TP: 1.5530

Trade Update - EUR/USD Short CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 11am:
My final lot closed today after hitting the stop loss. I had been up almost +250 pips in my position before it closed at +150 pips.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: +150 pips

Total Pips: +300
Total Profit: $300

Update 03-20-08 10am:
The Dollar has been on the rise all week, and this proved to be a great trade so far. The first 2 lots closed at +50 and +100 pips respectively. The third lot is trading at +160 pips. I have moved the stop loss to +100 pips.

The Trade:
Going short the EUR/USD pair.

System:
OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
This pair has been going up for a very long time, and all indicators are in oversold position. This might be the time when we see some pullback. From the daily chart, we see the AC showing red bar ad crossing 0. The AO is also showing red. And the Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are trending down. I have given this pair a sufficiently large stop loss.


Rating:
I will rate this trade a 3 star. The price is way above the 200 SMA. But this paid has to have a pullback sometime, and this is a good time.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.5596
Stop Loss: 1.5721
TP1: 1.5546
TP2: 1.5496

Trade Update - CAD/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-20-08 11am:
Sudden reversal in all rally's saw the stop getting hit for this pair. Unfortunate as I feel it still has some way to go.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2 &3: +100 pips

Total Pips: +250
Total Profit: $251.91

Update 03-20-08 10am:
One of the trends today has been the Yen rally against most majors. I closed the first 2 lots for +50 pips and +100 pips respectively. The 3rd lot is currently trading at +160 pips. Stop loss has been moved to +100 pips.

The Trade:
Continuing with the rally of Yen crosses, I am shorting CAD/JPY pair.

System:
modified HAS on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
Price dipping down. 2 red candles across multiple TFs confirming trend. 2 red bars on AO below zero.

Also the Yen is rallying back to 2 day old levels.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 4 star. All indicators point towards bagging some pips.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 97.685
Stop Loss: 98.885 (larged due to ATR)
TP1: 97.185
TP2: 96.685