Weekly Summary: Mar 10th - Mar 14th

What a week this was. The beginning of this week looked like a continuation of last week as I started off with a losing trade. I was almost down $400 by this point. However I had confidence in the systems I was using and stuck with it which paid off as the week progressed.

Highlight of this week:

• Developed my set of indicators that are profitable. It lets me get into trades before the OzFX system signals them.
• Was able to remain profitable this week despite the failure of the majority of the trades signaled by the OzFX forum. This was mainly because I was able to get in earlier into these trades using my system and bank 50 to 100 pips profit before it was signaled by the OzFX system.
• Found a new system (HAS) on the web and modified it. Its a simple system, but very profitable so far.

With the 3 trades I entered based on my system, 2 were successful. The third one (USD/CAD Short) failed because of the better than expected CPI data which caused a temporary spike in the dollar. That teaches us an important lesson: Keep track of the news for each trade.

Now on to the HAS system which I stumbled upon this week. First off, I did not create this system. It was created by Steintz who was generous enough to share it with the world. I was browsing through various blogs when I came across this system. And with all systems, I modified the rules a little bit for entering & exiting a trade to suit my needs.

At its very core, this is a very simple trend following system. But it tried to follow the trend across multiple time frames. It is this simplicity that I find appealing. And of the 6 trades I placed using this system, 5 of them were massively profitable, usually within a day. And the system I lost, it happened because I did not follow the system correctly. I should also mention that I exited the trades prematurely to lock in the profits. The signals were still valid, and I could probably be making more money holding on to them.

Both the HAS system and my system have been tested for just one week. It remains to be seen how these two perform over the long run. I think these 3 systems are definitely powerful to find good trade opportunities.

For the coming week, I plan on doing more research to learn about new systems. My goal is to read and learn at least one new system every week, and use it if I like the idea. I generally prefer systems that work on longer time frames since I cannot be trading all day. I also plan on developing a set of rules to use the HAS system performs on smaller time frames. The target is to capture quick 10-20 pip profit per trade.

Finally the stats for this week.

• Number of Trades: 10
• Number of Wins: 7
• Win Percentage: 70
  
• Win/Loss Ratio: 2.33
• Gross Profit: $1626.25
• Gross Loss: $753.14
• Net Profit: $873.11
• Avg. Profitable Trade: $232.32
• Avg. Losing Trade: $251.05

Click this to get the full list of my trades this month.

Trade Update - EUR/CHF Short CLOSED

Update 03-14-08 11:30am:
Close my final open position to end a pretty good week. Once again, the HAS system has been immensely profitable in most of the trades ( out of 6). I was a bit cautious with this trade and opened only 2 lots, because it showed just 1 red dot at that time. But it still turned out be a great call.

Lot 1: +100 pips
Lot2: +125 pips

Total Pips: +225
Total Profit: $225.12

The Trade:
I entered this trade based on the HAS system on the 4 hour charts. I have just the 1 red bar following the blue bars, but I figure that should be fine as the lower time frames all show red bars. But since I had got bitten by this trade before, I am opening only two lots instead of the usual three.


Lots: 2
Entry (short): 1.5758

Trade Ideas

I could not find any proper long trades for the day, so I decided to experiment with the HAS system on smaller time frames. So I spent about 20 minutes looking at the 15 minute chart and opening the following trades. All trades were opened with 3 lots.

USD/CAD Long: $21.31 (+21 pips)
EUR/CHF Long: $280.42 (-282 pips)
AUD/JPY Long: $410.74 (-411 pips)
USD/JPY Long: $29.69 (+30 pips)
CAD/JPY Long: $338.78 (-339 pips)
CHF/JPY Long: $17.80 (+18 pips)
EUR/JPY Long: $29.73 (+30 pips)
GBP/JPY Long: $59.46 (+60 pips)
EUR/GBP Long: $121.68 (+60 pips)

As you can see, most trades are with the yen as it was seeing some weakness on Japanese market open. I will also post the pips & profit made on these trades.

I am just going to leave them open for tonight and come check to see how they are doing tomorrow. The target points are small (10 to 20 pips) as its based on the smaller time frame. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Update 03-14-08 10am:
Well not a bad experiment. 6 of the 9 trades were successful and hit their target points. Which is a pretty good success rate. I closed the remaining 3 trades for loss. However since we didn't have a stop loss for this system, we ended up with big losses. But this does show that we can trade this system in short time, but we need to figure out a better way to minimize risks.

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-14-08 11am:
I must say I am pretty impressed by this system. At the basic level, its a simple trend following system which checks the trend over multiple time frames and places trade accordingly. I suppose that simplicity is also its power. Anyway, here are the results.

Lot 1 & 2 (closed at 7am): +200 pips (100 * 2)
Lot 3 (closed at 11:15am): +125 pips

Total Pips: +325
Total Profit: $325.59

Update 03-14-08 7am:
We hit the first target point of 156.15 and closed 2 lots for a +100 pips gain each. The final lot is trading at a gain of +60 pips.

The Trade:
This is another trade based on the modified HAS system on 4 hour charts. This time, I am entering the trade when we have multiple red bars following the blue ones. But the price had retraced back to the red bar, which gives us a good entry point. Check the charts to see what I mean.


Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 157.15

As before, I do not have a stop loss or target point for this trade yet.

Trade Update - USD/CAD Short CLOSED

Update 03-14-08 7am:
This trade didn't work out so well. Actually it was going well right until we got the US CPI data. Its one of those data that moves the currency markets, especially the dollar significantly and this time, I was on the wrong side of the trade. All 3 lots were closed at stop loss.

Total Pips: -306 (102 * 3)
Total Profits: $308.46

The Trade:
This trade is based on my system on the daily chart. Both the AC & AO are showing green for this pair. But its been on the decline for the past 3 days, and the price is below the 200 SMA. Also the Stoch, RSI and %R are moving down. So i think we could realize atleast a 50 pip profit in this trade.


Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 0.9823
Stop Loss: 0.9923
TP1: 0.9773
TP2: 0.9723

Trade Update - EUR/CHF Short CLOSED

Update 03-13-08 7am:
Oh well, what do you know. I had put 50 pip stop loss on this trade as I didn't want to risk a big drop when I was away from my computer, but as it happens that is what made me lose money in this trade. The stop loss was hit, but the pair is now below where I entered and the signals are still valid. So next time on, I should stick to the chart and trust it. So overall a good trade, but bad execution.

Total Pips: -150
Total Profit: $151.05

The Trade:
This is my third trade entered today using the HAS system on 4 hour charts. This time the Euro is showing weakness against the Swissy over multiple time frames. So time to short.


Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.5723

As with the previous trades, I do not have a stop loss or target point for this trade.

Trade Update - AUD/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-14-08 7am:
They say patience and confidence in the system is the most important traits in trading, and this trade illustrates that fact. After being down as much as -140 pips (per lot) on this trade, I doubled up and opened another position as soon as I got another signal using the system. And in the early morning move, we managed to hit our target points for a nice profit.

Lots 1-3: +33 pips (11 * 3)
Lots 4-6: +100 pips (100 * 3)

Total Pips: +333
Total Profits: $334.21

Update 03-13-08 11pm:
Interestingly, I got another signal for this pair using the HAS system. The original position is down almost -90 pips at this point, but I decided to open another position for this pair.


Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 94.65

I am not going to set any stop loss for this position, but I am going to set a limit for the original position at break even.

Update 03-13-08 3:30pm:
As of now, it seems like the trend is changing and this pair is poised to go higher. At current levels, I am already down approximately 175 pips per lot. The unfortunate part is that I opened this trade on my FXPro account at home, and I do not have access to it. So if its not closed by now, I will probably have no equity left by the time I reach home. :) SO now, it all depends on luck.

The Trade:
This is another trade based on the HAS system. The Yen is showing strength against all currencies today, and the HAS indicators show a downward trend across multiple time frames. Good time to enter a short trade.


Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 93.76

As before, I do not have a stop loss or target point for this trade. The position will be closed when the signal reverses.