Spiga

Trade Update - EUR/CHF Short

The Trade: EUR/CHF Short


Reason/Setup:
Another trade entered based on the OzFX setup on 1 hour chart. The price action showed a nice move down and the indicators seem to agree. The Stoch was also wide apart indicating a good entry. Checking the 30 minute chart, I noticed that the trend was strong there too.

The only flaw with the trade was I entered it late. I had missed about 30 minutes since the candle opened. But considering that the 30 minute chart showed strong trend, I decided to take it anyway.

Trade Details:

  • Date Entered: April 21 2008, 11:30am
  • Entry: 1.6034
  • Lots: 15
  • Stop Loss: 1.6064
  • Target: 1.6004
  • Date Closed: April 22 2008, 1:20pm
  • Result: Pair hit stop loss.
  • Total Pips: -450
  • Profit/Loss: $445.83
  • Rating: 3
Comments:
In retrospect that late entry did not do me any good and in fact cost me a win. I entered close to the bottom in that candle, and that meant when the price pulled back, I got stopped. As with my previous trade, I entered with a large position size and tighter stop which did not help either. It didn't take much time for me to get stopped in this trade.

Trade Update - EUR/JPY Short

The Trade: EUR/JPY Short




Reason/Setup:
This trade was signaled by the OzFX setup on 1 hour and 4 hour charts. The main entry was based off the 1 hour chart and this was for a quick 30 pip trade. As seen from the 1 hour chart, this was a good entry. The price action had been lower and the indicators had fired off correctly. Also the Stoch lines were wide apart indicating that the trend down is strong. Now that my account has reached 15K mark, I decided to enter with 15 lots per trade and kept the stop and target 30 pips away.

Trade Details:

  • Date Entered: April 21 2008, 10am
  • Entry: 164.096
  • Lots: 15
  • Stop Loss: 164.396
  • Target: 163.796
  • Date Closed: April 21 2008, 12:45pm
  • Result: Pair hit stop loss.
  • Total Pips: -450
  • Profit/Loss: $435.83
  • Rating: 3
Comments:
While I made a good entry on this trade, I made a complete mess of the position sizing and stop placement. The plan to increase my position sizing to 15 lots meant that my stops would have to tighter. And this really hurt me in this trade. Had I placed my stop even as wide as 50 pips, I would have walked out of this trade with a win.

Trade Update - EUR/GBP Long

The Trade: EUR/GBP Long



Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the A-MACD and Elite setups, both on 4 hour charts. On the A-MACD setup, the moving averages have crossed over, and the AO and MACD are moving towards 0.

On the Elite setup, the 3 EMA has not yet crossed over the 34 SMA. But we have had some strong long candles which pushed the price above the 34 SMA. Hoping the trend wil continue.

Trade Details:

  • Date Entered: April 21 2008, 7:30am
  • Entry: 0.80354
  • Lots: 7
  • Stop Loss: 0.80054
  • Target: 0.80854
  • Date Closed: April 22 2008, 2:30am
  • Result: Pair hit stop loss.
  • Total Pips: -210
  • Profit/Loss: $418.11
  • Rating: 3
Comments:
There were couple of mistakes I made on this trade. First off in the A-MACD setup, I entered this trade late. Even in the bar where I should have entered, I entered at the very top. And on the Elite setup, the moving averages had not yet crossed. So it was probably lack of patience on my part to enter it when I did.

Another important factor was that in the run up peceding my entry, the candles had been long. When this happens, I should probably also check the volume indicators to see if the steam has run out for this pair.

Trade Update - GBP/CAD Short

The Trade: GBP/CAD Short



Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade based on the A-MACD and Elite setups, both on 4 hour chart. The entry seemed ideal on the A-MACD setup as the moving averages were just crossing and the AO and MACD were pointing to a move down.

On the Elite setup, I was a little late with the entry. But the 3 EMA had crossed below the 34 SMA and the trend was downwards.

Trade Details:

  • Date Entered: April 21 2008, 7:30am
  • Entry: 1.9897
  • Lots: 5
  • Stop Loss: 1.9972
  • Target: 1.9797
  • Date Closed: April 21 2008, 9pm
  • Result: Pair hit stop loss.
  • Total Pips: -375
  • Profit/Loss: $372.11
  • Rating: 3.5
Comments:
As it can happen sometimes, entering a trade based on a long candle can be dangerous. In this case, I entered towards the lower end of the candle and the price continued to move up ever since. Unfortunately for me, I did not catch the move up as it would have been a good trend to catch.

Trade Update - GBP/USD Long

The Trade: GBP/USD Long


Reason/Setup:
Entered this trade based on the Elite setup on daily chart. From the chart it can be seen that Cable has closed higher the past 3 days, and the 3 EMA had crossed above the 34 SMA. This indicated a move higher.

I entered the trade this trade early on as soon as trading started.

Trade Details:

  • Date Entered: April 20 2008, 6:15pm
  • Entry: 1.99931
  • Lots: 5
  • Stop Loss: 1.98931
  • Target: 2.00931
  • Date Closed: April 21 2008, 1:10am
  • Result: Pair hit stop loss.
  • Total Pips: -500
  • Profit/Loss: $500
  • Rating: 5
Comments:
There is nothing wrong with the entry as the signal was valid in the setup. However I should probably not use the Elite setup on daily charts as its unpredictable.

Trade Update - AUD/JPY Long

The Trade: AUD/JPY Long


Reason/Setup:
Entered this trade based on the Squeeze indicator on weekly chart. I had entered this trade last week, and made some good profit. And the indicator signaled this trade once again this week. Even though I was a bit late in entering the trade, I still decided to take te trade since it was based off the weekly chart. When you trade of such big time frame, you have some leeway with your trades.

I entered with just 3 lots and looked for a 150 pip profit initially with a 100 pip stop. But as the trade progressed, I reduced the target to 100 pips.

Trade Details:

  • Date Entered: April 21 2008, 6pm
  • Entry: 97.11
  • Lots: 10
  • Stop Loss: 96.11
  • Target: 98.11
  • Date Closed: April 23 2008, 1am
  • Result: Pair hit modified target point.
  • Total Pips: +300
  • Profit/Loss: $291.26
  • Rating: 5
Comments:
This was a good trade to enter. Since you are trading on a weekly chart, you need to have patience. The trade did go up and down for few days and at some point, I was down on this trade. But eventually it moved in my direction and more importantly, it did not hit my stop loss.

Weekly Summary: April 13 - April 18

The Background:
This week turned out to be one of those invaluable learning experiences. Remember the previous week? It had ended in a bad note where I lost close to 3K in the last day of the week. So when trading started for this week, I was all about going and making a few trades and making back the money I lost at the end of last week. I had set myself mental targets of recouping the 3K loss and making another 3K extra for this week.

The Losing Streak:
Now when you start trading with a mindset like that, I soon realized it just leads to more losses. The first couple of trades this week were good trades, where I followed the setup correctly but still made a loss. Among the main reason was the fact that almost ever pair gaped big time on open on this week due to the comments passed at the G7 meeting. This fired off various entry signals in my indicators, and I entered the trades. I soon realized that when a pair gaps on open so big, the indicators do not generate valid signals. In fact they were in a totally messed up state.

By now, I had added to my losses form previous week, and I felt I had to now make up the extra loss too. SO now I started entering trades where the setups did not always generate valid signals and where all the rules were not followed. I could not get any signals in the higher time frames (1 hour and above), so I started looking for trades in 15 and 30 minute chart. The problem with that is in lower time frames, the signals are very unreliable. The tend to be very choppy and more often than not, I got stopped out of my trade.

The Aha.. Moment:
By Tuesday, I realized what my problem was. I was just over trading. And the more losses I had, the more I traded trying to recover my losses. Which in turn led to more losses. I was in a terrible losing spree, and just 2 days into this week, I was down a further 2K in equity. And I was entering so many trades every day that I still have a backlog of trade updates I have to write for my journal.

The Turnaround:
So from Tuesday on, I decided to stop worrying about the losses and start with a clean slate. I decided I will not over trade, and I will not trade from charts lower than 1 hour. I will also enter trades only when the setup clearly says so. This had such a magical effect in my results. To put that into perspective, in the first 2 days, I made 19 trades of which 12 were losing ones. Over the next four days, I made a total of 25 trades with just 7 losing ones.

Finish Off With a Cuban Cigar:
And Friday was the perfect way to end the week. After a good run up on the Yen and CHF pairs, they were starting a pullback. I caught these pull back right in time using the OzFX setup on 1 hour charts. And everyone of the trades I entered was a perfect. Its not often when you get a situation like this when 7-8 currency pairs show the exact same chart setups and move identically. You got to make use of these situations. And just like that, my account was back to its highest levels since before end of last week.

Lesson: Draw downs are inevitable. Do not try to over trade to recover the losses. Stick to the plan and trust in the setups to get you into good trades.

As always, its not time for the details trades and results for this week. You can it in the link here.