I am just posting a single update for for about 6 trades I placed today. Essentially all these trades were based on the same flawed premise and al of them ended with losses. Luckily I cut my losses quickly in these trades. I have also not added any charts as they are pointless. Never enter trades this way again.
eur/jpy short OzFX M30, Elite M15 -153, $151.28
usd/jpy short Elite M15 -120, $118.55
eur/usd long Elite M30 -200, $200.00
eur/jpy long Elite M15 -200, $197.80
usd/chf short Elite M30, OzFX H1 -151, $151.08
usd/jpy long Elite M15 -113, $111.75
As far as the rating for these trades go, I would rate them all a 1. I entered these trade just to be busy.
Trade Update - Multiple Trades
Trade Update - GBP/JPY Short
The Trade: GBP/JPY Short
Date: April 14 2008, 10:15pm
Entry: 199.685
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 199.88
Target: 199.485
Reason/Setup:
Trade entered based on the OzFX setup on 30 minute charts. As seen from the chart, AC and AO are showing red and stoch is moving down.
Result:
Although the pair moved i my favor and I closed out with a profit, I do not feel comfortable with the trade. Basically, trading on a 30 minute chart is too risky. In fact trading on any setup in anything less than 1 hour time frames is risky. Smaller time frames should only be used for trend confirmation. I feel I was lucky with this trade.
Date: April 14 2008, 11:10pm
Total Pips: +200
Profit/Loss: $197.61
Rating: 3
The low rating is due to the trade being entered based on a smaller time frame. While all the signals were valid in the setup, smaller time frames are just too risky.
Trade Update - GBP/JPY Short
The Trade: GBP/JPY Short
Date: April 14 2008, 12 noon
Entry: 199.56
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 199.86
Target: 199.26
Reason/Setup:
This trade was entered based on the OzFX setup on 1 hour chart. The AC and AO showed red and the Stoch was moving down. The entry also seem valid on the Elite 15 minute setup, but I was late with the entry. But the main signal was based o the OzFX system I placed the stop 30 pips away and the target 50 pips away.
Result:
For a volatile pair like this with a wide spread, a 30 pip stop is not sufficient. Also in the OzFX chart, we can see where I made the mistake with the trade. While the AC and AO indicators were hinting on a down move, the price action was saying something different. From the candles prior to the one I entered, we can see that the trend was still undecided. We had couple of higher closes followed by lower close. This indicates that the market is choppy and there is no definite trend. In these circumstances, its better to not enter the trade.
Date: April 14 2008, 1:30pm
Total Pips: -300
Profit/Loss: $296.78
Rating: 2
Lesson: DO not enter a trade based just off the indicators. Most indicators are lagging. Use price action to confirm the indicator before entering the trade.
Trade Update - USD/JPY Long
The Trade: USD/JPY Long
Date: April 14 2008, 11:45am
Entry: 101.139
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 100.839
Target: 101.439
Reason/Setup:
This trade was entered based on the A-MACD setup and Elite setup, both on 1 hour charts. In the A-MACD setup (chart 1), we see the crossover of the moving averages. Both the MACD and AO indicators were moving towards positive, and the CCI indicator had crossed 0.
On the Elite setup, the 3 EMA has crossed over the 34 SMA and the CCI had crossed above 0.
Result:
This trade was good in that the entry was timed perfectly. I entered the trade as soon as the entry signal was give, which meant as soon as the CCI crossed 0 on the A-MACD system and as soon as the crossover candle happened on the Elite setup. The stop was also placed reasonably.
Date: April 14 2008, 7:30pm
Total Pips: +300
Profit/Loss: $295.73
Rating: 5
Trade Update - EUR/GBP Long
The Trade: EUR/GBP Long
Date: April 14 2008, 10:15am
Entry: 0.79945
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 0.79810
Target: 0.80045
Reason/Setup:
This trade was entered purely based on OzFX setup on 1 hour charts. From the chart we can see it followed the setup to the book. The price was above the 200 SMA. I entered the trade in the middle of the upward trend. The AC and AO were showing green bars, and the Stoch was moving up with wide lines.
At the time of entering this pair long, I was also in a short trade with the same trade. So this was also entered as a hedge against that trade.
Result:
The call worked well, and the pair soon hit my target. The stop was placed too close to the entry for my comfort, but I was lucky that the price never looked to move down.
Date: April 14 2008, 11:10am
Total Pips: +100
Profit/Loss: $197.62
Rating: 4
Once again the rating is not perfect due to the fact that the stop was not placed correctly.
Trade Update - GBP/USD Short
The Trade: GBP/USD Short
Date: April 14 2008, 10:10am
Entry: 1.97962
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 1.98222
Target: 1.97662
Reason/Setup:
I entered this trade primarily based on the OzFX setup on 1 hour charts. Since I was entering the trade on a lower time frame, I have to make sure the trend is still present and strong. Hence I enter the trade in the middle of the trend instead of trying to pick the top and bottom.
From the chart, I entered the trade at the 5th down candle. By this time, there were multiple red bars on the AC and AO indicators. The stoch was moving down and the lines were wide apart signifying that there is not going to be an upside rally.
Result:
I did make the same mistake as the previous trade to place the stop loss based on the 15 minute chart. The stop was placed about 5 pips above the 34 SMA. But the stop was still close to 30 pips away from my entry point providing me some leeway. And I was also lucky with this pair that the price never reversed.
Date: April 14 2008, 11:10am
Total Pips: +300
Profit/Loss: $300
Rating: 4
I give this trade a 4 rating since the placement of stop was not ideal. Had the price moved like the other pair did, I could have been stopped out and missed out on a good move.
Trade Update - EUR/USD Short
The Trade: EUR/USD Short
Date: April 14 2008, 10am
Entry: 1.58192
Lots: 10
Stop Loss: 1.58362
Target: 1.57892
Reason/Setup:
This trade was signaled by the OzFX system on 1 hour charts and also the Elite setup on 15 minute charts. The entry signal was due to the OzFX setup in 1 hour chart. The chart below shows that the AC and AO were shoring red candles and the Stoch was moving down and were wide. I placed the stop based on the Elite setup in 15 minute chart. The stop was placed just above the 34 SMA line and was 17 pips away.
Result:
As you can see from the OzFX chart, the trade was a valid one. The price continued to move down as signaled by the OzFX setup. But the mistake I was was to place the stop based on the Elite setup on 15 minute chart. I have come to realize that the 15 minute time frame is not reliable for placing trades. As it turned out, the stop was too small for the trade especially since it was placed on a 1 hour chart, and I got stopped out (just barely). Had I placed my stop about 30 pips away, I would have walked out with a big gain.
Date: April 14 2008, 2pm
Total Pips: -170
Profit/Loss: $170
Rating: 3
The rating of 3 is due to the error in placing stop based on 15 minute time frame.
Lesson: Do not base trade decisions on the 15 minute chart. Use it only as a reference to confirm trend.
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