Update 04-03-08 7am:
I guess I was a bit premature in exiting this trade. This is one of those OzFX trades on the daily chart which has a perfect setup and take time in developing. Had I held on to it, it would have been a wild ride. Down almost 20-30 pips at a point, but currently up over 50 pips.
Lesson: Give OzFX daily chart setups time to develop. Do not closed the trade based on smaller time frame. And HAVE PATIENCE!!!
Update 04-02-08 11:30pm:
I had lot of hope for this pair, but its been basically trading sideways. It missed my target point by less than a pip yesterday, and been trading around break even all day today. Maybe if I was patient enough, it will eventually hit the TP. But I decided to close the position instead and invest elsewhere.
Total Pips: +28
Total Profit: $55.66
The Trade:
Shorting the EUR/GBP pair.
System:
This trade is entered based on 2 systems. The OzFX setup on the daily chart gives this signal. Then on the 4 hour chart with the A-MACD setup, I just got this signal.
Reason:
This trade is signal led by 2 setups. The OzFX on the daily chart, and the A-MACD on the 4 hour chart.
OzFX(daily):
A-MACD(4 hour):
Trend(daily):
HAS(4 hour):
Elite(M15):
Rating:
I will rate this trade a 4.5 star. Signaled by 2 setup, this looks very promising. Only drawback is the price which is above the 200 SMA for a short trade.
Entry & Exit:
Lots: 5
Entry (Short): 0.78813
Stop Loss: 0.79313
TP: 0.78513
Trade Update - EUR/GBP Short CLOSED
Trade Update - EUR/USD Short CLOSED
Update 04-02-08 12:30am:
Looks like traders in the Asian and London session are not participating in the Dollar rally ahead of Bernake's speech tomorrow. I re-entered this trade and was stopped out. Here are the result of my 2nd trade.
Total Pips: -500
Total Profit: $500
Update 04-01-08 11pm:
Just a little over 3 hours for me to close this trade and make a cool 300 pip profit. The signal is still valid, and I will be looking to re-enter.
Total Pips: +300
Total Profit: $300
The Trade:
Continuing from where I left of earlier today. The signal from OzFX system is still valid. So I decided to enter this trade again for a 20 pip target.
System:
As mentioned above, the signal is based on the OzFX setup based on the daily chart.
Reason:
After the bog rally in the equity markets, the Dollar is still showing some strength against other majors. The OzFX signal is still valid. AC and AO still show red, and the Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are trending down. So I decided to enter this trade again for a short 20 pip target.
Rating:
I wold rate this trade a 4 star. The price is still above 200 SMA for a short entry, but the trend is strong, so we should see some positive result.
Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Short): 1.55932
Stop Loss: 1.56432
TP: 1.55632
Trade Update - GBP/CHF Long CLOSED
Update 04-02-08 12:30am:
I decided to enter one final trade before hitting the bed, but it turned out badly and got stopped out. Luckily I entered with just 3 lots for this trade. Here are the results.
Total Pips: -150
Total Profit: $148.19
Update 04-01-08 11pm:
I re-entered this trade once again and made another quick killing. This time, it took just 20 minutes to make the 300 pips. Here are the stats for trade 2.
Total Pips: +300
Total Profit: $295.58
Update 04-01-08 10pm:
Has to wait almost 6 hours to get the 200 pips on this trade. But as long as I see green, its all good. The trend is still valid, so I might look to re-enter this trade.
Total Pips: +200
Total Profit: $197.34
The Trade:
Going long the GBP/CHF pair.
System:
Based on the A-MACD system on 4 hour charts. But its also signaled by the OzFX and Elite systems.
Reason:
The setup looks good and the indicators line up. I probably entered the trade a little late. But given below are the charts for the trade. As before, I am looking for a quick 50 pip profit and going in with a large lot.
A-MACD (4 hour):
OzFX (Daily):
Trend(daily):
HAS(4 hour):
Elite(1 hour):
Rating:
I would rate this a 4 star. Even thought we are a little late, we have confirmation from multiple systems. One drawback is that the price is below the 200 SMA. The other drawback is the size of the spread. Its close to 7 pips, and that can be the difference between hitting my target point or not.
Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 2.00175
Stop Loss: 1.99675
TP: 2.00675
Trade Update - USD/JPY Long CLOSED
Update 04-01-08 11:40am:
That was some quick profit. Just spent an hour for it to hit the target point. I am beginning to like this short term trading strategy.
Total Pips: +200
Total Profit: $195.95
The Trade:
Playing the short term dollar strength, I am going long the USD/JPY pair.
System:
This is based on the Elite system on 15 minute chart. I missed the signal at the beginning, I am trying to get into a trade for small profits when the 3EMA crosses over the 10SMA confirming continuing trend.
Reason:
The Dollar has been on the up trend against the Yen for couple of days now. And its especially showing some strength today. I missed the initial entry, but I am using the Elite system charts to get in for some small pips.
From the chart, the 3 EMA is crossing over the 10 SMA indicating a possible move up again. The 34 CCI is just below 100 and looking to bounce above it again.
Other systems also show that the trend is strong.
Elite (15 min):
A-MACD (4 hour):
OzFX (Daily):
HAS (4 hour):
Rating:
I would rate this trade a 3.5 star. I am not getting in at the beginning of the trend, but rather in the middle or even late. But I am just looking for a quick 20 pip profit and have a 50 pip stop loss.
Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Long): 101.862
Stop Loss: 101.362
TP: 102.062
Trade Update - EUR/USD Short CLOSED
Update 04-01-08 2pm:
I traded this pair 3 times today. The number of lots used were the same. The first trade hit my TP of +70 pips. The next one was a quick +20 pip scalp and the final one was a -26 pip loss.
Trade 1: +700 pips
Trade 2: +200 pips
Trade 3: -263 pips
Total Pips: +637
Total Profit: $637
The Trade:
The Euro has moved to new highs against the Dollar, and its now time for some pull back. Shorting the EUR/USD pair.
System:
The trade is based on the OzFX system on daily charts. But its also very close to being signaled by the A-MACD system.
Reason:
After the rally, its now time for the pullback and brief consolidation. According to the OzFX system, the price is now in pullback mode. AC and AO have turned red. And the Stoch is moving downward form oversold territory.
On the trend indicator, we see the RSI, Stoch and %R moving down confirming downward trend.
On the A-MACD system, we see the 5 EMA has crossed below the 20 EMA. The 34-CCI is almost crossing the 0 mark indicating a down turn.
OzFX:
Trend:
A-MACD:
HAS:
Elite:
Rating:
This trade would be a 4 star. The indicators all signal correctly. However the price is above the 200 SMA and we are shorting the pair which is going against the long term trend. But since the indicators all point to a strong trend, I am going into this trade with a bigger position, but targeting only a 50-75 pip profit per lot.
Entry & Exit:
Lots: 10
Entry (Short): 1.57243
Stop Loss: 1.58234
TP: 1.56543
Trade Update - EUR/CHF Short CLOSED
Update 04-01-08 7am:
Not surprisingly, the only trade I picked from the ones recommended decided to go against me and hit the stop loss. The sudden Dollar rally can be given as an excuse for the failure. I am however not sad with the trade as I followed the rules. If there is any complain about the trade, it is that I entered it without the AO showing red.
Total Pips: -300
Total Loss: $296.94
Update 03-31-08 10pm:
So few hours after I opened this trade, I noticed that except this pair, all the remaining pairs have gone according to the recommendation. So I thought this was the safest trade of the bunch given the level of Stoch, RSI etc. But it turns out its the worst. So I have analyze the trades once again to see what I missed.
The Trade:
This was one of the trades I picked from the OzFX forum recommendations today. Going short the EUR/CHF pair. The other trades recommended for the day at the forum are as follows.
- GBP/USD Short
- NZD/JPY Short
- USD/CAD Long
- AUD/JPY Short
- EUR/JPY Short
System:
The trade is based on the OzFX system on daily charts. Note that this is the original OzFX system. The AO is still not red when entering this trade.
Reason:
The price is below the 200 SMA and AC has turned red and about to cross 0 in the daily charts. The Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are also trending down for this pair. Checking up the pair on other system, I see that the downtrend has already started, or about to start in the other systems depending on the time frame. Shown below are the pictures form all systems starting with the OzFX.
OzFX:
Trend:
A-MACD:
HAS:
Elite:
Rating:
Considering that the trade is in direction of the long term trend, this is relatively safe. The Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are trending down and not yet in over sold territory indicating there is some downward pressure left. And finally, I should see the trade being signaled on the HAS and A-MACD system soon. Considering the above, I would rate this trade a 4 star.
Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.56727
Stop Loss: 1.57727
TP1: 1.56227
TP2: 1.55727
TP3: 1.55227
Weekly Summary: Mar 23rd - Mar 28th
Yet another bad losing week. The reason again was just lack of discipline. I entered way too many trades, and I entered trades without proper setups. And the worst mistake of all, which I still have open is to open a trade with no stop loss. This trade (EUR/JPY Short) was in fact from the previous week, but it continued to get worse, and I am still having it open. But I will be closing all open positions tomorrow to close out the month.
Lets first start with the highlights of the week.
- The main highlight of the week was the finding out yet another trading system called the 'Elite'. This is a system I came across ForexFactory, and its by 'WaterFlame'. I am just using the system as described by him.
- Picked up some good setups and let the profits run. Notable among the trades were the EUR/USD and EUR/CAD trades which are still open.
Alrite, moving into something more pleasant, I have been reading some forums where they have been talking about other money management and position sizing methods. The idea is to open larger number of lots, but taking small pip profits. Considering that in the setups that I use, the easiest profit is made in the first 50 pips, why not open more lots (say 10) and close them all out at 50 pips? I will give this idea a shot next month to see how feasible it is. The biggest drawback is that in case of a string of losers, I might drain out my equity pretty quickly and go out of business. So its of at most importance that my system had a very high success rate.
Now finally on to the stats for the week.
- Number of Trades: 18
- Number of Wins: 11
- Win Percentage: 61.11%
- Win/Loss Ratio: 1.571
- Gross profit: $1429.70
- Gross Loss: $1688.38
- Net Profit: $258.68
- Avg. Profitable Trade: $129.97
- Avg. Losing Trade: $241.19