Trade Update - EUR/JPY Short CLOSED

Update 03-26-08 11am:
Just a couple of hours ago, I was close to breaking even on this trade. But a sudden rally in this pair made me hit the stop loss and suffer a huge loss. Anyway, I shoudn't have entered this trade in the first place.

Total Pips: -450
Total Profit: $452.70

The Trade:
Entered the short side of the trade once again.

System:
This trade is based on the OzFX squeeze more on 4 hour charts.

Reason:
This almost seem like the perfect setup for a trade on the OzFX system. On the 4 hour charts, the price is starting to move down. The AC and AO indicators are showing red bars and going lower. And RSI, Stoch and %R indicators are moving down fro oversold territory. And finally the price is below the 200 SMA.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 5 star. This is a perfect setup where all the signals matches. Lets see if it was a good call.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 155.33
Stop Loss: 156.33
TP1: 154.83
TP2: 154.33

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Short CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 8pm:
There is a good reason why you have a rule not to enter a trade you just exited. And its precisely to protect you from trades like this one. I had made a nice profit with my previous trade on this pair earlier today. But I entered the same trade again, and ended up losing all the profits and more.

Total Pips: -300
Total Loss: $295.32

The Trade:
I entered this trade once again. The signal based on OzFX system still looks valid, and I feel I can make some more pips from this pair. So I am going short once again.

Here is the chart. All reason for entering the trade is similar to my previous post, including the chart.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Short): 1.5680
Stop Loss: 1.5780
TP1: 1.5630
TP2: 1.5580

Trade Update - GBP/JPY Long CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 10pm:
This trade didn't quiet live up to my expectation. After the first lot closed for a +50 pips profit, the trade soon turned south and closed at stop loss.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2 & 3: -200 pips (100 * 2)

Total Pips: -150
Total Profit: 150.37

Update 03-24-08 12 noon:
This trade was also just signaled by the A-MACD system. So I can rest assured that I will make some money in this trade. :)

The Trade:
Long on GBP/JPY Pair.

System:
Based on OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
Weakness of Yen. Price moving up. AC & AO has multiple green bars confirming trend. Stoch, RSI and %R hooking up.


Rating:
3 star. Mainly cause I entered the trade late. We have already seen a 300 pips move today before I entered the trade.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 200.34
Stop Loss: 199.34
TP1: 200.84
TP2: 201.34

Trade Update - EUR/CAD Short CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 11am:
I closed the first 2 lots for +50 pips and +100 pips profit, but the final lot hit the stop loss.

Lot 1 (closed at 7:25am): +50 pips
Lot 2 (closed at 7:45am): +100 pips
Lot 3: o pips

Total Pips: +150
Total Profit: $147.51

Update 03-24-08 8am:
Talk about good timing. By the time I write this report after placing the trade, we have hit out first TP for a +50 pip gain. The remaining 2 lots are currently trading around +90 pip range.

The Trade:
This is similar to the EUR/AUD trade. I just had to wait a little longer to confirm this trade.

System:
This trade is based on the OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
The AUD, as well as CAD is showing some strength especially against the Euro. This seem like a brief consolidation after long bull move. One the chart, I have the AC and AO turn red. I had to wait a little longer to confirm that the Stoch, RSI and %R indicators are also moving down thereby confirming the trend.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 4 star. The Stock, RSI and %R indicators are hooking down from oversold territory. This indicates right time entering the trade. Only drawback is the price is above 200 SMA and we are going against the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (short): 1.5727
Stop Loss: 1.5827
TP1: 1.5677
TP2: 1.5627

Trade Update - GBP/CHF Long CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 10pm:
Another trade that failed to make it big. The 2 remaining lots hit the stop loss during the Asian session. Very disappointing as I was expecting some major pips from this trade.

Lot 1: +100 pips
Lot 2 & 3: 0 pips

Total Pips: +100
Total Profits: $100

Update 03-24-08 8am:
This trade has already hit its first target point of +100 pips. The remaining 2 lots are trading at +140 pips.

The Trade:
Going long on the GBP/CHF pair.

System:
This is the first trades placed on my new system. I call this the A-MACD system which will be explained in a later blog.

Reason:
The Yen has been weakening against all majors. From the chart we see that the AO has 2 or more bars above zero and increasing, and the MACD has just crossed above 0. This indicates an upward movement in price.


Rating:
Since its a new system, its still in testing phase and I don't know how to rate it. But I will give this trade a 3 star to begin with due to the following.

• We have had more than 4 positive and increasing bars on the AO before MACD turned green. This might indicate that there has already been a significant upside movement in price before I entered the trade.
• Price is below the 200 SMA. This means that the trade is against the long term trend.

Entry & Exit:
Lots: 3
Entry (Long): 2.01372
Stop Loss: None. We close the order when the signal changes or TP is hit.
TP1: 2.02372

Trade Update - EUR/AUD Short CLOSED

Update 03-24-08 9pm:
The third lot hit the stop loss.

Lot 1: +50 pips
Lot 2: +100 pips
Lot 3: 0 pips

Total Pips: +150
Total Profit: $136.83

Update 03-24-08 7:30am:
This has been a good call so far. We closed the first 2 positions for +50 pips and +100 pips gain respectively. The third lot is currently trading over 100 pips. Stop loss has been moved to break even.

The Trade:
I reversed my previous open trade in this pair and entered the EUR/AUD short.

System:
This trade is based on the OzFX system on daily charts.

Reason:
After moving up for multiple weeks, the price seem to have reached a temporary peak and been moving down the last couple of days. Both the AC and AO have turned red. Stock, RSI and %R indicators are in oversold territory, and beginning to hook downward indicating a move lower.

Also interesting to note that in the HAS system, the 4 hour time frame is now starting to get a red bar indicating downward pressure for the next few days.


Rating:
I would rate this trade a 3.5 star. This is because the long term trend for this pair has been upward, and the price is way above the 200 SMA.

Entry & Exit:
Entry (Short): 1.7076
Stop Loss: 1.7176
TP1: 1.7026
TP2: 1.6976

Weekly Summary - Mar 16th - Mar 20th

This was a short week on account of Good Friday and Easter holidays, but it still was a very volatile week, both for the market and my performance. The week started on a disastrous note for me. The very first trade I placed on the week, I broke all kinds of rules and made every mistake and was soon down almost $1400. I was lucky to get back to even on this trade. Read this post for the postmortem on this trade.

But apart from this trade, the rest of the week seem to progress smoothly, and I was about to make my 10% for this month by the end of this week. The came the fateful day of March 19th.

On this day, I decided to place almost 9 trades. A majority (5 out of 9) of the trades were successful, but the losers were big and far outweighed the winners and they killed me. And just like that, I had lost all the profits I had accumulated the past 2 weeks, and was even briefly down 4%. The biggest killer was the EUR/GBP trade. I was very confident on this trade, but despite the great signal, the trade went against me and hit stop loss. Even worse was the fact that each pip for this pair is worth $2 instead of the regular $1 with other pairs.

I currently have 4 open positions for this week. So the weekly results may change once the positions close.

Lessons from this week:

• Be more selective with your trades. 9 trades in a single day, especially when trading off a daily or 4 hour chart is excessive. Wait for that perfect setup.
• Obey the money management rules, no matter what. I removed stop, or did not place stop on certain trades hoping the trade would turn and I can break even. This is a sure way to lose your entire account
• Stick with the system. If you get a signal from a system, stick with it until you get stopped out, or hit the profit targets. I did not do this for the USD/JPY trade and closed it out for a loss, when I could have been sitting on a good profit right now.
• Do not trade around holidays. Usually days leading up to and following major holidays (like Good Friday for example) has low volume and hence high price volatility. This is a sure way to lose money as stops get hit easily.
  

Weekly Stats (Open trades not counted):

• Number of Trades: 21 (includes 2 open trades)
  
• Number of Wins: 11 (excludes 2 open trades)
• Win Percentage: 52.4%
• Win/Loss Ratio: 1.375 (excludes 2 open trades)
• Gross profit: $1423.30
  
• Gross Loss: $1884.84
  
• Net Profit: $461.54
  
• Avg. Profitable Trade: $129.39
  
• Avg. Losing Trade: $235.61